WEEK 11 MILLY MAKER PLAYS

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

We get a nice size 11-game slate for Week 11. There are 6 teams projected to score over 26 points with OAK leading the way with 29.5. Notable injuries include Freeman, Hilton and Stafford. Guice and Harry should see action this week. The question still remains whether or not to pay up for CMC who is still $10,500. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Lamar Jackson, $7700, Baltimore Ravens

10% projected ownership

The highest priced quarterback on the week is still very much in play for me. Paying up at quarterback is a viable contrarian strategy. Besides having the highest raw projected points on the slate, Jackson is in a nice spot here against the Texans. HOU ranks top 6th in QB points allowed (23 DKPt/avg/game) and 3rd worst in Sack Rate (4.97% Football Outsiders.) Find value elsewhere and pay up for Lamar’s ceiling. 

Dak Prescott, $6700, Dallas Cowboys

8% projected ownership

Dak has proven to be a solid QB1 this season, with Football Outsiders 1 overall ranked offense. With all of his weapons available, Dak and company hit the road to face the Lions, who are likely starting Jeff Driskel at QB. Prescott also has the luxury of playing indoors against the Lions who give up the 5th most FPts to quarterbacks over the last 4 weeks. 

Chalk QB:

Brees

Also Consider: 

Jimmy G, Kyle Allen, Carr

RB

Tevin Coleman, $6100, San Francisco 49ers

15% projected ownership

This one is obvious, but I wanted to include it. The 49ers got Juszczyk and Staley back last week, yet, will most likely be without Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle. The 49ers have the second highest team total on the slate at 28.25 and face a team who is bottom 4 against QBs and RBs over the last month. Over this same period, the 49ers rank 8th in FPts earned by RB. In this kind of situation, I’d prefer the ground game (for the most part… see Samuel, Deebo below); given the fortified offensive line and the 49ers identity as a ground and pound team. 

Ezekiel Elliott, $9000, Dallas Cowboys

10% projected ownership

Coming off 2 disappointing games, Elliott gets a nice matchup against the Lions, who give up an average of 32 DKPts per game to the position. There is currently no Vegas projection for the game because of the uncertainty surrounding who will start for DET. I think it’s safe to expect 3-4 TDs from this offense regardless of who’s under center for Detroit. In Week 10, Zeke played 99% of the snaps so we know where the production can be expected on the ground. 

Chalk RB:

CMC, Jacobs, Brian Hill (underweight his high ownership but still a value) 

Also Consider:

Cook, Bell, Singletary, ROJO (love the passing game usage but bad matchup)

WR

DJ Moore, $5900, Carolina Panthers

15% projected ownership

Moore has quietly been #good with Kyle Allen under center. Coming off back to back 20+ DKPt fantasy performances, Moore and the Panthers face the Falcons at home. The Panthers have a 27.5 implied total here as home favorites. On the season, ATL ranks bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to QB and WR. PFF expects Moore to see a lot of Isaiah Taylor and if you’re a regular reader of this blog you know I love to target him. If you need a refresher, Taylor has still allowed the most receiving yards in coverage and is bottom 2 in receiving touchdowns allowed (PFR.) 

Courtland Sutton, $6000, Denver Broncos

4% projected ownership

Sutton has been a very reliable floor receiver throughout the season and the de facto number one for the Broncos with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders. On the season, MIN ranks 4th worst against opposing wide receivers (42.9 per game/avg.) Opposing cover corner, Xiaver Rhodes, is bottom 10 in receiving yards and completed passes allowed in coverage (PFR.) Sutton is yet to top 100 yards and a TD on the season. This could be the week!

Deebo Samuel, $4000, San Francisco 49ers

18% projected ownership

Deebo was thrust into the role as the top target on MNF with no Kittle and with Sanders forced out early with a rib injury. He came through big with a career night, topping 100 yards on his way to 8/112 in the OT loss. PFF expects Samuel to see a lot of Byron Murphy, who has surrendered a league worst 7 TDs in his coverage. Murphy is also bottom 2 in targets and completions allowed (74/51). Samuel is an easy candidate to peg for a 5x ceiling with his cheap price tag and no Sanders. 

Even More Chalk WR:

MT(Sean Murphy-Bunting gets the start…), Tyrell Williams  

Also Consider:

McLaurin, Hollywood Brown, John Brown, Edelman

TE:

Mark Andrews, $6100, Baltimore Ravens

3% projected ownership

I’m going back to the well with Andrews this week. With his expected low ownership and high ceiling, Andrews is my top tight end on the slate.  He’s top 3 in Player Profiler’s dominator rating, accounting for 25.3% of the teams receiving production. PFF rates his matchup as top 2 in their TE Matchup Chart. Over the past 4 weeks, BAL ranks 1st in TE FPts earned while HOU is 8th worst in FPts allowed to TE.    

Chalk TE:

Waller 

Also Consider:

Witten, Hockenson, Jared Cook

DST:

Oakland Raiders, $3300

2% projected ownership

I very rarely write a blurb on a defense but I feel it’s more warranted here. The Raiders have a massive total (29.5) in the Blackhole, as 10.5 point home favorites against the very much tanking Bengals.  While the field is rostering Carr at QB with this high total, let us take the defense as a cheap, lighter owned exposure to this matchup. CIN allows a slate best 7% pressure rate. In his first NFL start last week, 4th round rookie Ryan Finley tossed 1 interception and lost a fumble. 

Also Consider:

SF, NE, BUF, WAS 

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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