WEEK 8 MILLY MAKER PLAYS

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

Week 8’s main slate features 6 teams with implied totals of 28+ points. If this turns out to be accurate, we’re in for another high scoring week! NE and LAR are both 13 point home favorites. We could see the return of Drew Brees on Sunday, as he plans to return to practice from his thumb injury. The RB situation in ARI is worth monitoring, as we got totally duped by the Cardinals last week as DJ started and Edmonds went full nuclear. Let’s dig in!

QB

Jameis Winston, $5900, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2% projected ownership

I won’t spend too much time on this pick. Jameis is cheap and has shown the propensity to unexpectedly fill a stat sheet in a perceived bad matchup.  Winston will face off against the Titans, who currently rank as the number 1 rushing defense in EXP (expected points contributed by rushing defense PFR).  While the Titans rank top 3 in rushing DVOA (have only allowed 3 rushing TDs so far), they are bottom 10 in passing DVOA. Winston trails only Stafford in Deep Attack Ranking.       

Derek Carr, $5000, Oakland Raiders

5% projected ownership

You didn’t put your pitchforks away yet right? Good. So I get it, Carr has yet to top 20 fpts in a game this season. The Raiders and Texans are both bottom 5 in DKPts allowed to opposing QB. HOU is currently repping a 29.25 implied total. If this game somehow shoots out and we get 25 FPts out of Carr that’s a W. Of course, I’d rather pay up for Watson but for $2,000 less, rostering Carr allows us to pay up at other positions. Josh Jacobs DNP Thursday. 

Chalk QB:

Watson (my favorite QB this week), Goff, Wilson

Also Consider: 

Tannehill, Stafford, Allen, Brees (check to see if he’s active), Minshew II

Fade:

Wentz

RB

Leonard Fournette, $7800, Jacksonville Jaguars

14% projected ownership

This projection is way too low and his salary is too cheap. Fournette averages 92% of the Jags’ snaps which trails only CMC and Bell. The Jets allow the 5th most DKPts to opposing running backs with a 29.1 per game average (PFR.) Fournette has surprisingly only hit pay dirt once so far this season considering his usage and that he is 4th best in Red Zone rush attempts. The Jets have given up the most rushing TDs to running backs with 8. 

Todd Gurley, $7400, Los Angeles Rams

3% projected ownership

Apparently, the hate has gone too far. Either that, or his salary is too high? ::shrug emoji:: The Rams have a slate leading 30.75 implied team total when they head to London to take on the Bengals. Malcolm Brown has been ruled out, so it will be down to Gurley and Henderson in this one. Even with a lighter workload this year, Gurley is still top 10 in Red Zone Rush Attempts and Rushing Tds. No team gives up more DKPts than the Bengals with a 33.8 per game average (PFR.) Gurley has 2 multiple TD games already this season.  

Austin Ekeler, $5900, Los Angeles Chargers

3% projected ownership

Melvin Gordon’s return from holdout has seemingly put a damper on Austin Ekeler’s fantasy value. On a PPR site like DK, however, he hasn’t missed a beat. Ekeler is still 7th best on the season in receptions. He’s had a 15 reception and 7 reception game after the return of Melvin Gordon. If we can get 7 receptions here and hopefully a TD, we’re looking at 3-4x game from Ekeler. The Bears are bottom 4 in RB receptions allowed to opposing RB. 

Chalk RB:

CMC (hopefully the matchup and price scare people away), Carson, Barkley, Edmonds (I’ll limit exposure here after a monster game but can’t ignore the volume and lack of trust from the coaches) 

Also Consider:

Michel

Fade:

Henry, Lindsay, Chubb

WR

Tyrell Williams, $5500, Oakland Raiders

5% projected ownership

“The Gazelle,” has a receiving touchdown in every game he’s played this year. He’s currently on the mend from a turf toe injury that has kept him out since Week 5. The matchup sets up nice for Williams if he’s able to return. When healthy, he is a near every down player (top 10 in snaps Weeks 1-4 with 94% avg) and top 5 in Player Profiler’s Dominator rating.  The Texans are tied for last place in receiving TDs allowed to opposing wide receivers (11.) HOU is also bottom 3 in DKPts allowed to the position (44.3 gm/avg.) Monitor his status as he’s listed as questionable with a limited practice session on Thursday.

DK Metcalf, $5000, Seattle Seahawks

9% projected ownership

We have yet to see a ceiling game from the rookie, Metcalf.  DK pretty much ticks all the boxes for me this week. Mega-athletic player, volume, matchup, lower ownership and massive team total. While I do like Carson fine this week, Metcalf and the SEA receivers in general shouldn’t go overlooked in this spot. Metcalf will be lined up against Isaiah Oliver who leads the league in yards allowed to opposing wide receivers. Metcalf is top 5 in DOT averaging 18.1 yards/target. The Falcons are bottom 5 in NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt with 8.2. 2nd only to MIA), receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs allowed to opposing wide receivers.   

Chalk WR:

Hopkins (top WR), MT, Sutton, Kupp, John Brown, Hilton

Also Consider:

Godwin, Stills, Golladay, AJ Brown, ALL SEA receivers

Fade:

Julio, OBJ

TE:

Austin Hooper, $5500, Atlanta Falcons

9% projected ownership

The #1 fantasy TE is projected to be sub 10% owned this week. Hooper is top 5 in the league in receptions and top 11 in receiving yards. We obviously don’t want a TE tethered to Matt Shaub, so monitor Matt Ryan here, but he did practice Friday. The Falcons are -7 at home in the dome and are expected to be playing from behind. The Seahawks give up the 4th most DKPts per game to tight ends (15.5 gm/avg.) 

Jonnu Smith, $2800, Tennessee Titans

.10% projected ownership

This play is dependent on the availability of Delanie Walker, who still hasn’t practiced after logging just 5 snaps against the Chargers last week.  Smith has been serviceable in the past with a couple of decent games. The Bucs are bottom 5 in receptions, receiving yards and DKPts allowed to tight ends. At near min salary it just takes 12 fpts for a 4x performance.   

Chalk TE:

Everett, Waller, Henry

Also Consider:

Jared Cook (not practicing Thursday) Engram, Hockenson, Herndon(limited in practice) 

Fade: 

Ertz, Olsen

DST:

NE, JAX, LAR, TEN, DET, CAR

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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