NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 4

Welcome to Week Four of season seven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 hitting on our pick of the week (Dallas) and both alternate picks (New England and Green Bay).  All three wins were in convincing fashion, and it was finally an easy week for our blood pressure. Time to extend our pick of the week streak to four!  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

After almost half of the games in Week Two were division matchups, only two games in Week Three were between division foes.  While the Jets/Patriots matchup was a blowout and the Titans/Jags game wasn’t exactly a thriller, these games are still the most unpredictable and should be avoided when possible.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • New England at Buffalo
  • Washington at New York Giants
  • Cleveland at Baltimore
  • Seattle at Arizona
  • Minnesota at Chicago
  • Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While our rules have been very successful in past seasons, they have been truly put to the test in 2019.  We already mentioned that the Thursday game between Tennessee and Jacksonville wasn’t very close, and on Monday, the Bears were in full control in Washington.  However, the Sunday night tilt between the Rams and Browns came down to the final minute, and we were very close to seeing an upset in one of the three games.  One out of three is better than zero out of three!  Unless you want to take a chance, I would still avoid the below marquee games:

  • Philadelphia at Green Bay
  • Dallas at New Orleans
  • Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last week, nine games were won by the home team.  While a 56% success rate isn’t exactly mind blowing, we may be starting to see the trend start to favor home teams which we normally see as seasons progress deeper into the schedule.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Los Angeles Chargers at Miami
  • New England at Buffalo
  • Kansas City at Detroit
  • Seattle at Arizona
  • Dallas at New Orleans

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  •  Los Angeles Rams over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While the Rams didn’t beat the Browns convincingly last weekend, the fact is, they won a game on the road and are a perfect 3-0 on the season.  On the other side of the field is a very inconsistent Bucs team that is currently 1-2 and last week, lost to a Giants team that hasn’t exactly looked the best this season.  I’m hoping the Rams come to play in front of their home crowd and take it to the Bucs early.

 Other options I like this week:

  •  Indianapolis Colts over the Oakland Raiders

The Colts are a team I underestimated this season after Andrew Luck announced his retirement.  However, the reality is, they took the Chargers to OT in LA, in Week One. They beat a tough Titans team on the road in Week Two and outscored a Falcons team that has a very good offense.  Oakland on the other hand, after a Week One victory over a struggling Broncos team, have struggled mightily the last two weeks.  This should be close, but I think the home field advantage will be the difference in this one.

  • Atlanta Falcons over the Tennessee Titans

While I’m not usually a fan of picking a team with a losing record for these picks, I do think the Falcons are due for a big win.  The Titans were dominant in the first week of the season, but for some reason, they have looked worse week by week over their last two games.  A lot of this has to do with their signal caller and if I am picking between QBs, my money is on Matt Ryan all day, every day.

Pick of the Week Streak = 3 weeks

Overall Record = 7-2

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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