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Thursday Night Fight Metrics

Week 1 Thursday Night Fight Metrics

Vegas, Defense Against the Position, and All in One Rankings Game Scripts **


All in One Rankings – Thursday Night Fight Metrics

Thursday Night Fight Metrics. Welcome to the Week 1 2019 Season using my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings analysis. I have gathered using meta-data processes PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings.  I placed all these rankings into the same numerical scale of 100 to 0 (best to worst). This normalization allows us to build landscape views of Teams, Positions, and Players.


Vegas Information

Vegas information I use consists of game point totals as well as the points spread. There is evidence that total game points does correlate with passing yards, game touchdowns,  as well as QB Fantasy Points. I can currently modeling the Vegas metrics and hope to a full analysis in my 2020 textbook.

This year I will view the games in terms of high passing, mid-level, and low levels of passing. Games with high predicted Vegas total game points should be full of passing PPR goodness while low predicted Vegas total game points not so much.


Defense Against the Position

Earlier this year, I published articles using the 2018 defense against the position (DAP) metrics. High DAP suggests an easy game script for that position. I use to set lineups and focus on the tougher Flex positions. Low DAP implies a tough game for that position’s players.

Thursday Night Fight Metrics DAPs

This metric table contains the complete DAP landscape for week 1.

The data present includes:

  • Week
  • Game Number
  • Team
  • Opponent Run Passing Defense DAPs 
    • Balanced,
    • Easy Run,
    • Easy Pass,
    • Both Rush/Pass Easy,
    • and Tough Both
  • Opponent Team
  • QB, RB, TE, and WR DAP Scores faced by the Team 

The highs and lows faced by each team positional has been emphasized by colorization.

FYI – SF vs TB has both teams defenses rated as easy – force some of their key players into Flex or DFS lineups


Slide22


Thursday Game Fight Metrics

  • CHI vs GB – Average Passing 46 Total Points

  • CHI – Average Defense Landscape from GB

  • GB- Tough Defense Landscape from CHI


Slide28

CHI

  • Favored by 3 points.
  • Faces a balanced defense in run and passing.
  • Monty and Cohen have a fair DAP to perform into. Hard to imagine a blow-out so no bias to either RB
  • Tougher TE DAP at -1.6 Burton may not be at 100% GB strong TE DAP!
  • WR+3.6 is a nice easy DAP for CHI WRs. Robinson can shine and Miller also should be active as well.

Slide47


Slide28

GB

  • Faces a tough defense in both rush and passing
  • Very Tough RB DAP -6 and TEs at -1.9.
  • If GB drops behind which is a possible then RB Williams and Graham might have more attention. Aaron Jones seems to be in line for a long tough night.
  • WRs face an average WR DAP so Rodgers passes even more than usually
  • Expect Rodgers high passing ! Adams and Allison collect PPR points.

Slide52


DFS Advice

If you have to play a Thursday game (google Thursday games and lower points historically). I support CHI WRs and GB WRs. I might fade RBs and TEs in here. Conservative advice as I do not really gamble in DFS. Good Luck!


** Also, please digest the advice

from FakePigSkin’s Lauren Carpenter

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2019/09/05/week-1-tnf-breakdown-packers-v-bears/

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