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Dynasty Startup Power Rankings Part 1

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Dynasty Startup Power Rankings Part 1

By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)


Fun Research in my textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


Dynasty Start-Up Rankings

Dynasty startups are in my opinion the toughest to draft into. Given the view of this year combined with a look forward can confound a drafter. As I have discussed concerning reference class forecasting in previous Team Flash Cards, I like to “see” the potential draft selections by positions.

My approach to my data is fewer words and more visuals. Do you want me to hand-feed you what you can see? No! Use to inspire deeper thinking. Chop the wood then get the fire! Do not be like those who would want the fire then maybe you will chop some wood! They keep you dependent!

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The Landscape of the Current Dynasty Start-up Positions 1st to 144th Pick


Rounds 1 to 4

Let’s find the patterns. The figure below is for the first 4 rounds displaying from the Top; WR, TE, RB, QBs. Note the picks are by 6 pick segments. Star Superscripts are rookies

Takeaways.

  • 1) 7 RBs in the first 8 picks
  • 2) 12 WRs/9 RBs/2TEs by pick 24.
  • 3) First TE by Pick 18 and QB by Pick 31.
  • 4) 48 pick we see 3 TEs/3QBs/18RBs/23WRs
  • 5) WRs pick up steam after a strong RB run (pick 8). Do not expect any WRs 2s to be left by 4 rounds
  • 6) You should have access to 6 RB2s before pick 48. The pattern might be RB/2WRs/RB
  • 7) I suggest waiting on QBs
  • 8) Use the Barbell approach for TEs (Go early or late)

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Rounds 5 to 8

Takeaways.

  • 1) Rookie WRs begin before Rookie RBs (6th round vs 7th round)
  • 2) RB3s start after the 64th pick.
  • 3) WR4s by the 86th pick.
  • 4) 10 TEs gone by the 79th pick
  • 5) 9 QBs by the 74th pick. The 10th happens at the 96th pick. The public says the first 9 QBs are worthy. Below are the “weaker” QBs for dynasty.
  • Plan using these takeaways. For example, if you love an RB/WR rookie you can wait later in the draft.

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Rounds 9 to 12

Takeaways

  • 1) Strong dominance of later WRs. These are WR4s. They all have “flaws” so use team usages/round of draft originally taken/context of other WRs.  A team WR2 that is a WR4 overall should be better than lower team WRs. Note only a few teams can support 3 WRs for Fantasy.
  • 2) Rookie RBs all in here in rounds 9 to 10. These are Rookies that have more questions than the top RBs. Team usages, and the hierarchy of their Team RB group. Are they pass-catchers?
  • 3) Rookie TEs arrive on the scene but later round 11 or so. On average drafting these for the future.
  • 4) No rookie QBs drafted so they should appear in round 13 or higher. They are being taken as a 2nd QB type for this year. Still, look at draft round taken. Round 1>2 etc

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Levels of Team Uncertainty

This chart can be a shorthand for quick decisions in a timed draft. I have annotated the Teams into High, Average and Low Uncertainty (red, yellow or green). In this table, I list the number of players in each team in the High, Average and Low Levels of Uncertainty.

Also, I included the High and Average Player vs Low Player Count Ratio as a metric for a numerical view of the Team Uncertainty. Finally, I used another metric for measuring Team Uncertainty, the UN Score an algorithmic based metric.

I used the UN Score as a guide to assign annotation of the Team Uncertainty. I would use as a tiebreaker in closely ranked players probably later in the draft

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The Landscape of Team Uncertainty Un Scores

The team UN Score tiers are much clearer in this plot-High to Low Uncertainty Levels. CHI vs Min represents the Highs to Lows in Un Scores. Use these metrics for tiebreakers and teams to dig for late sleepers.

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Team Positional Predicted Performance Score (PF) for 2019

Use of Draft Selection and Tier Level View of each Team’s Position 2019 PF. Again, we have a nice tiebreaker metric for drafts. Note PF is my 2019 Predictions for each Team Positions.

Defense and Kicker 2019 PFs

Note CHI DEF is much the best while the NYG/BAL Kickers are the tops for drafts.

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Quarterbacks 2019 Dynasty PF

9 QBs are in the above average Tier >65 PF. Later QB Drafting seems reasonable.

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Running Backs

8 Teams had RB crews in the >80 PFs for Dynasty

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Tight Ends

Two clear TE leaders are KC and SF >80 PF for Dynasty. 7 Teams in an obvious grouping >62 vs the next at 42 and below. It’s a good cutoff. I would suggest staying in those groups.

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Wide Receivers

New Orleans is the top in here followed by MIN, ATL, TB, and LAR. All of those have upcoming WRs in their WR crews. JAX is the worst for PF and uncertainty for sure.

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Team Positional PFs

I suggest using these metrics for finding extremes within each team. You should focus you onto the highs and lows within each Team. I would use these metrics for deeper views.

By coming into my rankings for the top down, I try to eliminate the “halo” effect of a good/bad player’s name that can cause over or underestimations of a Team/Position/or Player

The halo effect is a type of immediate judgement discrepancy, or cognitive bias, where a person making an initial assessment of another person, place, or thing will assume ambiguous information based upon concrete information.[1][2][3] A simplified example of the halo effect is when an individual noticing that the person in the photograph is attractive, well-groomed, and properly attired, assumes, using a mental heuristic, that the person in the photograph is a good person based upon the rules of that individual’s social concept.[4][5][6] This constant error in judgment is reflective of the individual’s preferences, prejudicesideology, aspirations, and social perception.[3][6][7][8][9] The halo effect is an evaluation by an individual and can affect the perception of a decision, action, idea, business, person, group, entity, or other whenever concrete data is generalized or influences ambiguous information.[10][11][8]

Link  Halo Effect Wikipedia

Note I have included a scaled Performance Factor (PF) metric to place the position’s PF into the league context. (negative scaled PFs are below league average while positive scaled PFs are above the league average).

Thus, you get an outside vs inside look into each team!

For example, ARI is all about that RB action boss! +32 league average and 90 PF within the Team.

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