by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)
Tennessee Titans – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 16, 2019, Edition).
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- Current Positional ADP Rankings,
- 2019 Expected PPR FP Seasonal
- 2018 END of Season PPR FP,
- and Expected Change from 2018 to 2019
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
TEN QB– In 2018, Mariota was used +0.8% more than in 2017. Some progress here. In terms of FP he added 40 FP to 2018 totals vs 2017. Again slight movement. Is it him, schemes, WRs etc? Hard to determine.
He is currently 28th QB and is expected to drop by -2% in 2019. No improvements expected.
TEN RB – TEN has had a strong rushing program and the RBs were used by +3.8% more than in 2017. They are thought to balance the lower passing activity. The good news was the RBs generated the second best season in the last 6 years.
Therefore, the public expects a weaker RB crew in 2019. Henry is at RB 20th and is expected to drop by -11% in FP while Lewis at RB 50th is expected to drop by -40%. They produced 364 points in 2018 and the public predicts in 2019 they return 288 FP. These metrics are hard to accept. I suspect these are low and Henry/Lewis are bargains at their price in PPR leagues.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
TEN TE – In 2018, Walker was injured and out for 15 games. The replacement TEs thus dropped by -2.7% in team usages. They returned the second to the worst season in the last 6 years.
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Thus, the public has Walker at TE 13 and expects him to return 124 a drop of -14% (adjusted FP/G for 16 games). They might be lower on him and might be a slight bargain in 2019 with injury concerns.
TEN WR – In 2018 the TEN WRs were used by -2% less vs 2017 and they produced the second worst WR season within the last 6 years. Concerns must exist with the TEN staff as the peak of the WRs in 2013 531 FP vs 2018 390 FP. That is a 140 FP drop.
Davis is currently at WR 40, AJ Brown-Rookie at WR 67, and Humphries from TB at WR 74. Given the last 2 years, the public is not supportive of these players.
Humphries is going at a predicted – 47% drop from 2018. Seems low and a bargain especially in PPR leagues and Best Ball late picks. Davis could be mispriced a little by Humphries is the possible late play vs price.