Pittsburgh Steelers– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fantasy1)

Pittsburgh Steelers Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • QB15  Ben Roethlisberger
  • RB9     James Conner
  • RB38   Jaylen Samuels
  • TE9     Vance McDonald
  • WR6    JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • WR45  James Washington
  • WR56  Donte Moncrief
  • Rookie Round Pick No.   Team   Player                     Pos.   School
                   3              66          PIT      Diontae Johnson   WR   Toledo
                   4              122        PIT      Benny Snell            RB    Kentucky
                   5              141        PIT      Zach Gentry           TE     Michigan

============================================================================

Quarterbacks

PIT QB– Big Ben Had a Nice 2018 Season and he was used by his team by 3% more than in 2017. His 2018 FP was the best in the last 6 years. That fact is missed as he is a QB15 ADP for 2019. The public predicts then a 100 point drop in FP (25%) from 420 to 317 (2019). Hard to see that kind of drop and I am targeting him late QB pick in best ball etc. 

Running Backs

PIT RB – Bell is gone but he did not play last year so 2018 seems like a benchmark for PIT. PIT did drop its usages of its RBs by -2.8%. Thus its RB1 Conner is at RB9. Interestingly, the 2018 RBs did produce their 3rd best year (without Bell) in the last 6 years. Also at RB38 is Jaylen Samuels. He is the X-factor. Is he the pass-catcher or 3rd back or?

In 2018, Samuels took 29 Targets and 56 Rush Attempts vs Conners 71 Targets and 215 Rush Attempts. Conner at RB9 is expected to drop in FP production as he was in 2018 an RB6 at 280 FP. The public predicts him to be at 250 FP in 2019, a drop (30 points) of 10%. Samuels was RB56 and had 90 FP in 2019. In 2019, the public suspects he will get those points from Conner and is expected to increase to 128 FP. Therefore the Conner points are going to Samuels of 38 points extra. 

Tight Ends

PIT TE – In 2018, the PIT TEs were used at a +1.9%. Considering their 2018 seasonal FP, they had the best year in the last 6 years! This year, PIT has a TE9 in Vance McDonald who is predicted to gather 143 FP. In 2018 he was at TE10. No improvement is predicted.

The only chance for his FP to increase would be for the WRs to not be producing as much! If you have concerns about losing Brown then McDonald could be a sneaky TE 5/6 type. Bargain? Remember Ben is expected to lose 100 FPs from 2018. Maybe 50 more go to McDonald? (TE5/6ish?)

Wide Receivers 

PIT WR –In 2018, PIT WRs had Brown and still dropped in usages at -2.2%. They did have their best year in the last 6 years. Therefore, the question is can JuJu and crew deliver in 2019? 

Juju is currently at WR6 and in 2018 he was WR8 at 300 FP. Therefore, the public expects him to improve by 20 or so points. That is not % wise much more. Thus the next 2 WRs should be expected to deliver near 430FP? (2018 760 FP team WR- 320 Juju points).

These next 2 WRs are at 2019 WR45  James Washington and WR56  Donte Moncrief. They would be expected to generate 145 and 130 FP for a total of 275. That is a shortage of 150 FP (Ben minus 100 FP?). Adding it all up it seems to fit if add the ADP predicted FP. If the WRs can do more and TE adds PIT can replace Brown. This is a lot of moving parts in this team. Risk level must be higher than last year for certain. 

Hard to see any rookies making a move but Diontae Johnson does has a shot at WR3 level. Late Best Ball play?

===========================================================================

Pittsburgh Steelers

Slide46 PIT

 

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