by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
New York Jets– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB21 Sam Darnold
- RB7 LeVeon Bell
- TE15 Chris Herndon
- WR33 Robby Anderson
- WR64 Jamison Crowder
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
NYJ QB– In 2018 the NYJ used their QBs are a +0.6% level. This was the 3rd best in the last 6 years. Darnold has delivered an so-so QB performance so far. He is currently at QB 15 for a streamer or QB2 type in Best Ball etc. I expect more than his FP from 2018 of about 357 vs 300 (2018), a 16% increase in QB production.
NYJ RB – Acquiring Bell is a critical piece for NYJ. In 2018 the RBs were down -0.8% in used and their FP was the 4th best in the last 6 years. Bell is an RB6 and should produce 23 PPR FP per game or at least 390 FP. The NYJ then will have in one play someone who can generate more than what ALL 2018 NYJ RBs did.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
NYJ TE – The NYJ were known for the no TE offense in 2015/16 but last year they were used at a nice 4.6% increase in usages. 2018 was the second best TE FP for the NYJ in the last 5 years! Herndon is currently though at TE15. The public is predicting 120 PPR FP from him.
NYJ WR – In 2018, the NYJ WRs were under-used at a -4.5% level. They generated only the 4th best WR FP in the last 6 years. Anderson and Crowder are the WR in the 2019 WR ADPs at 33th and 64th levels. That is a clear distinction of team WR value almost double for Anderson over Crowder. That is 240 PPR FP from Anderson in 2019 and 105 PPR FP from Crowder. Note Crowder at 63 is where he was at in 2018 end of season standing. The public sees no change for him in 2019! Anderson is predict at 240 but last year was at 170 PPR FP. The public is expecting a 30% increase in PPR FP by a QB only going up by 16%? That seems a little high but Darnold will have more time with Anderson so WR33 can be a ceiling?
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