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Miami Dolphins – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Miami Dolphins – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • No MIA QB in Top 26 QBs based on 2019 ADPs
  • RB 27 Kenyan Drake
  • RB 58 Kalen Ballage
  • No MIA TE in the Top 22 TEs based on 2019 ADPs
  • 65 14.05 Kenny Stills

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

MIA QB– The QB Team usage increased in 2018 by 1.6% and the QB FPs were the 3rd best in the last 6 years. The public predicts MIA has a poor season. They are not ranking any QB in the top 26 QBs. MIA needs a QB, watch the draft for a QB. MIA has acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick from TB in this off-season. Ryan is going to be MIA’s stop-gap QB in 2019.  He did play 8 games and got 26 FP/G production. Thus, he is underpriced as a streamer type QB in 2019. 

MIA RB – MIA RBs took a+5.2% increase in team usage. Their RB FP was their best in 6 years! Thus Drake is an RB 27 in 2019 ADP. He was part of the reason MIA had a relatively good year in rushing. The issue is if they are behind in a lot of games in 2019 they will have to pass. Drake’s value is tied to the team’s strength of schedule and defensive play! Ballege was a talked-up RB last year but he is currently at RB 58 and the public does not think he is anything more than a deep handcuff. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

MIA TE – MIA had no TE game in 2018 as measured by a loss of -4.4% in team usage and having the worst TE FP production in the last 6 years. 2018 TE were down a whopping 32% in FP!  Currently, MIA does not have a TE ranked in the top 21 ADP-based  TEs.  Watch for TEs drafted. 

MIA WR – The WRs had a poor year in MIA as they dropped -2.4% in team usage. Thus, their FP produced was the worst in 6 years. Thus it is hard to imagine much happening in 2019. Stills was ranked 24th in WRs last year and he is the 65th WR in current ADP. In other words, that value seems low for him. I expect his ADP to come down to WR3 range. He could be a nice WR3 for 2019. No other MIA were ranked in the top 68 WR for 2019 ADPs. Lastly, note that Albert Wilson generated more FP/G in 2018 than Stills and is under-valued with Fitz-Magic. Therefore, I expect he and Stills are those Best Ball WRs needed for a few extreme games. The public likes consistency and MIA is not going to be that team in 2019. 

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Miami Dolphins

Slide38 MIA

 

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