by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Los Angeles Chargers– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )

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In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting

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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

• Team

• Position

• 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

• Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

• % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

• % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

• Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 

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The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

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Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

• Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

• Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

• 2018 Team Positional Usages

• (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)

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Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

LAC QB– Rivers projects to be a QB2 type in 2019 as he is currently QB13. He did have a strong 2018 as it was the 2nd best season in FP in the last 6 years. The team did increase his usage by 1.3%. He seems to be a viable streamer QB as well if you stream in 2019. 

LAC RB – Gordon had a nice 2018 with a 4.6% increase in team usage of RBs. That fact also gives value to Ekeler as a handcuff and passing RB type for zero RB teams. 2018 was the second best year for LAC in the last 6 years. Expect 2019 to be the same level. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

LAC TE – The biggest mystery for 2019 is Henry the TE. What is his role? He is a TE6 right now and the public predicts a great season. I would pass on him and pick later TEs. Without Henry, they generated a sad 122 FPs in 2018, a 56% drop from 2017! 

LAC WR – The viable 2 WRs from the LACs are Allen and M Williams at WR12 and 26th. They generated a second best season in the last 6 years. The team used them at 2% more. Note these metrics were based on no TE. If Henry is as predicted then expect the WRs to drop down to the 550 FP level and RBs at a 450 level. That is a drop of 11% for WRs and 13% for RB. That would then drop Gordon closer to RB8 or so. Allen drops to WR15 and Williams at WR 32 or so. The current ADPs are the ceiling for them! Caution for 2019. 

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Los Angeles Chargers

 

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