by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Indianapolis Colts – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- Andrew Luck QB3
- Marlon Mack RB16
- Nyheim Hines RB39
- Eric Ebron TE4
- Jack Doyle TE19
- T.Y. Hilton WR11
- Devin Funchess WR48
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
IND QB– Luck is currently at QB3 and is expected to continue doing well. The QB usage was up slightly in 2018. 2018 was via PPR FP the 2nd best season for the Colt’s QB in the last 6 years. Nothing surprising here.
IND RB – Mack is currently at RB 16 and Hines at RB 39. Thus we have an RB2 and 4 on this team. The 2018 RB usages were up slightly in 2018 and they actually had the best PPR FP yearly total in the last 6 years.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
IND TE – Eric Ebron TE4 and Jack Doyle TE19. IND saw a nice increase int he TE team usages of 2.7%. Given the dual threat of Ebron and Doyle, I expect they continue. The difference in ADP seems a little low for Doyle. Doyle could be a TE2/Streamer/Ebron Handcuff/Best Ball TE for 2019. Note that 2018 was the best in the last 6 years for TE PPR FP.
IND WR – T.Y. Hilton WR11 and Devin Funchess WR48 represent a nice tandem of WR1 and WR4. Funchess would be valuable in a 3 WR league type and as a handcuff to Hilton. However, in 2018 given the 2TEs, the team usages dropped for WRs by -3.3%. The pie only is so big in IND, thus hard to see a higher ceiling for Hilton than later WR1. The IND WRs had their 2nd best season in the last 6 years. Hilton could be a target for those in the bottom of the draft order taking a WR/RB and on the turn taking a RB/WR if you wish to balance your team early.
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