by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Houston Texans – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- Deshaun Watson QB6
- Lamar Miller RB29
- Donta Foreman RB43
- DeAndre Hopkins WR1
- Will Fuller WR31
- Keke Coutee WR48
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
HOU QB– Watson is currently at QB 6 and was used at a +5.3% higher level than 2017 HOU QBs! The public is expecting a large volume of passing in 2019. Watson had the best HOU QB PPR numbers in the last 6 years. The improvement was eye-opening and HOU has its QB. FP 388 (2018) vs 258 (2015)
HOU RB – Lamar Miller RB29 and Donta Foreman RB43 are seen as not ready for top RB status. Seem to be RB3/4 types. The issue for concern was the loss of team usages of a whopping -6.6%. The HOU RBs produced 289 which was the lowest in the last 6 years!
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
HOU TE – The HOU TEs in 2018 dropped by -2.3% vs 2017 but that was still 3rd best int he last 6 years. They have some interesting player but the public not predicting much as no HOU TE was ranked by ADP of 21st or better!
HOU WR – DeAndre Hopkins WR1, Will Fuller WR31 and Keke Coutee WR48. Watson moved his WRs up a nice 3.6% in team usages. They were the top in the last 6 years. Hopkins should be in the tops but not sure WR1 is the final answer. Looking at high lows in ADP he is predicted to be WR5 or better. The other 2 – Fuller WR 24 to 39 is his range and Coutee 39th to 55th WR. They are both of equal risk but Fuller seems to have a shot at WR2 level!
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