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Green Bay Packers  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

 

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Green Bay Packers  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

  (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition)

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • Aaron Rodgers QB 2
  • Aaron Jones RB 17
  • Jamaal Williams RB 44
  • Jimmy Graham TE 17
  • Devante Adams WR 2
  • Geronimo Allison WR 48

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

GB QB– Rodgers team usage was up a nice 2.9% in 2018. His 2018 was the 2nd best FP in the last 6 years. He is QB 2 by current ADP and the public expects a better 2019. I am not sure as his numbers while good were just stellar. Top 5 QB seems ok. 

GB RB – The rushing game in GB was down in 2018 no matter how it seemed. RB team usage dropped a sad -3.7%. Jones is at RB 17 and that is what the public is thinking. 2018 was the worst year in the last 6 years at GB RB PPR FP production. Jones will be one the public grabs after they take a WR1.  Williams is still in the mix but at RB 44. Possible gamble late RB acquisition. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

GB TE –  Jimmy Graham is at TE 17 and is not considered a top TE prospect. The GB Team usage was up with Graham but at 13% usage in 2018 not a strong part of the GB team. I not for your gambling pleasure that 2018 FP was the top in the last 6 years. I viable TE2/streamer type. Kendricks was also acquired recently and could surprise! 

GB WR – Adams WR 2 and Allison at WR 48 represent the top 2 WRs. St Brown/ Valdes-Scantling are also out there as well FYI (injury handcuffs for Adams?). The GB WRs team usage dropped by -1 % and was below the 6 year FP average. Adams will be collecting the FP but hard to trust the others. I am not sure Adams is a WR2 but in the top 12 for sure. He will be held down if GB does not have another 2019 WR option for Defense’s to focus on! 

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Green Bay Packers

Slide31 GB

 

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