Don't Miss

Detroit Lions  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Detroit Lions  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • Strafford QB 23
  • K Johnson RB 19
  • TEs All Below TE21 – Jesse James/Luke Wilson/ Toilolo, Levine
  • Golladay WR 18
  • Jones WR 39

============================================================================

Quarterbacks and Running Backs

DET QB Strafford in 2018 saw a +1.8% team usage increase. However, 2018 was his 2nd worse PPR FP season in 6 years. Hard to see him bouncing up much. A late QB target/ QB2 type/Streamer. 

DET RB – K Johnson (RB 19) woke up the DET RBs. in 2018 the RB increased in team usage by +5%. This should be the 2019 pattern as well. This year was the best in the last 3 but only 4th best in 6 years. Room for improvement exists! KJ seems a solid RB2 type for 2019. He will have his games! Drafters will target him if they take a WR first. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

DET TE – Det gave up Ebron and replace him with a collection of “TE Puzzle Pieces” hoping maybe one fits for 2019. TE team usage dropped by -1.5%. Hard to guess who is the show for 2019 if one exists. 

DET WR – Golladay and Jones are a nice pair of WRs that seem to fit. However, DET WR team usage dropped by -5.3%. Are they held back by the QB? They are at WR18 and 39 (2nd and 4th level WR). Not sure they are priced right. Jones could be under valued for 2019. Note 2018 WR FP was the worst in 6 years. A gamble for sure on DET WRs! 

===========================================================================

Detroit Lions

Slide30 DET

 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: