Denver Broncos  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Denver Broncos  – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • QB DEN not in top 25 QBs 2019 ADPs
  • Philip Lindsay RB 18
  • Royce Freeman RB 36
  • TE DEN not in top 21 TEs 2019 ADPs
  • Emmanuel Sanders WR 31
  • Courtland Sutton WR 43

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

DEN QB  The DEN QB position in 2018 was steady in usage vs 2017. It was a below average looking at the last 6 years! The QB will be Flaco gotten from the BAL team. It was clear DEN needed a new QB. Flaco will be a later draftable QB2 type by August. 

DEN RB –  Lindsay woke up the DEN RBs. The team RB usage was at +5.6%. PPR FP in 2018 was the 2nd best in the last 6 years.  DEN will have a strong rushing show in 2019. Lindsey is at 18 and Freeman at 36. Their relationship remains unclear for their 2019 roles. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

DEN TE – Heuerman appears to be the TE show now. He is not in the top TE groups. Team usage dropped -1.5% in 2018 and that was about the average of TE FP in the last 6 years. 2015 to 2018 were very poor years vs 2013/14. An upgrade is needed. 

DEN WR – In 2018 the DEN WR team usage dropped by a large -4.4%. Was that the QB? Poor WR play? 2018 was the 2nd worst in the last 6 years looking at FP production. Can Flaco wake up the WR corps?. Sanders and Sutton are only at WR3/4 levels. the public is not “seeing” 2019 as a cure for DEN WRs.

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Denver Broncos

Slide29 DEN

 

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