by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Chicago Bears- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
CHI QB– They may have found the best QB in 6 years as the 2018 FP average was the top in the last 6 years. Also, the team usage of the QB was up by +4% as well. This is a nice foundation for 2019. Note that Trubisky is currently at QB 20 ADP. That certainly seems a later QB2 type of target. CHI has a high QB/WR usage ratio and if that pattern continues in 2019, then Trubisky will remain in the QB2 level.
CHI RB – CHI had a nice usage for the RB in 2019 up by +2.1%. The usage ratio of RB/WR is also very high (close to 1). That implies a strong rushing or Rb pass catching vs the WRs. The RBs produced a 6 year high for CHI. Again, was that a sign of weaker WRs or QB or both? Answer that question for 2019! Cohen is currently at RB20 and was a pass catcher vs a strong bell-cow rusher in 2018. Hence the RB/WR ratio.
The rusher for CHI is Howard but he is going at RB 45! The public is predicting weaker rushing more pass catching for 2019! Remember in 2018 preseason Howard was going at RB 13 ish. If he can get back to that form then RB45 is a bargain but that might hurt Cohen some FYI.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
CHI TE – The TE position dropped by -2.0% in team usage in 2018. It was the 3rd best TE FP year in the last 6 years though. I suggest the TE position is going to be steady for 2019. Current Trey Burton goes off at TE10. No sure the upside for 2019 if any. Watch for new events.
CHI WR – The 2018 CHI WRs were used less by 4% vs 2017. A decline in team usage (QB issues?). 2018 was below average in FP and nothing yet suggests any upside for them. Robinson is a WR26 and Miller is going at WR 64. Not a strong tandem here and hard to expect more than the public projects in WR value. Caution. The QB/WR usage ratio is also high at 0.71 suggesting QB is rushing and or using the other positions.
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