Buffalo – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

 

By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Buffalo – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition
.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF ( (6 yr average) What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Buffalo Bills

Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! 

Quarter Backs and Running Backs 2018 vs 2019

The Bills in 2018 enjoyed a high bump in the QB position (+8 %). However, Josh Allen is still a QB2 type going at QB 19. As was the BAL case, a good QB needs good players to pass to in 2019. Also, 2017 was such a poor year for BUF that any improvement seems good. The 2018 stats were weak vs 2015/16 data! 

The BUF RBs are weak! McCoy is going off as the RB29th and no other RBs is in sight looking down to the 65th RB! Watch for any moves for BUF on the RBs in free agency/rookie drafts.  FYI Frank Gore added 2M$ for 1 year

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers

The BUF TEs have a poor 6-year history and the 2018 changes was a -0.5% down. 2017 BUF TEs was the strongest in the 6 years and a giraffe standing above the TE weeds. 2019 unless changes are made should mean a weak TE performance. The BUF TE is currently not in the top 21 TEs being drafted. A streamer play only or 3rd TE in best ball.  Note Tyler Kroft just signed 21M$ Could move the BUF TE position up! 

BUF WRs were down -3.2% in 2018 vs the 6-year average. Weak crop of WRs. Zay Jones in the highest WR going at 48th WR with Robert Foster at the 68Th WR slot.

The Bills had a good QB with poor prospects in 2019 unless we have a change in free agents/rookie drafts.  Note the conventional wisdom predicts BUFF grabs a first round WR! Also then the Bills are thought to be ready to draft later round RBs and TEs. Those needs are quite clear. Watch the drafts for a change in positional prospects. Free agency is a possibility as well. Expect BUF has to go out and shake up the team! 

Clearly this whole team has a boat load of risk for 2019! 

Fantasy Points 2018 vs Last 5 Years. 

2018 QBs in top 3 of last 6 years.  (Ok)

2018 RBs Last in FP over the 6 years (Poor)

2018 TEs. Last in FP over the 6 years (Poor)

2018 WRs. 5th in last 6 years.  (Weak)

Concerns for 2019 are obvious! 

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Slide23 BUF

 

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