By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
BALTIMORE – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!
The Ravens showed a nice QB Improvement with their switch to Lamar Jackson. He is currently QB7 and a later QB target for many. He brought BAL the best QB season the highest FPs in 6 years. As good as that was the WRs did not profit as Jackson is a rushing threat as much as a passing QB.
The BAL WRs dropped -5.5% in 2018. They need new WRs. John Brown is at WR 43. Crabtree is a free agent and going at the WR 63 level. The stage is set BAL to move to another free agent or strong WR Rookie. This is a fluid situation and remains a concern for 2019. I predict BAL will grab an Early WR if possible and then later an RB.
The RBs did as well as the BAL RBs in the last several years before. Nothing improved or declined. Given the WR issues, BAL will need RBs to pick up the slack. Note Gus Edwards is going as the 36th RB. That may be low as the volume needs that BAL might have in 2019. Collis may have issues to deal with and is at the 46th RBs. FYI. Collins has been released by BAL. So we stay on Edwards as the top RB for now.
The TEs also were steady. BAL used a crew of TEs to mix and match in 2018. Currently, no TE is going about the 21st TEs.
We have WR 43, Undraftable TEs and RB at 36 for BAL. This seems to be a building year for drafting WRs and RBs. Seems like a risky investment with much of your draft capital.
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