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ATLANTA – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

ATLANTA – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition
.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


ATLANTA

Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! 

 Matt Ryan came back to his 2016 form in 2018. The increase in his position was a nice 4.4%. 2/3 years have been great. The evidence suggests a nice 2019 in store for him. He is currently 12th QB off the board. He is a late QB 2019 target for me assume his WRs are a go! 

Given 2018 data and  3.5%, the tandem of Jones and Ridley should be collecting many fantasy points. Jones is currently WR4 (High?). I like several WRs below him better. Ridley is at WR27th. That seems closer to value. I may skip Jones and grab Ridley later as my WR2 in 2019.

The biggest disappointment for ATL was the RB at a -8.2% drop. This is concerning to me for the value of Freeman and Coleman currently at RB 23 and 29th RB for 2019 ADP. My first thought is Freeman is to low and Coleman too high. However, these values seem fluid to me and I will not firm up my thinking till later.

Hooper is the unknown for me. He had an ok year and moved the FP needle at ATL but my hopes were a high result for him in 2018. He is 17th TE and a TE2 for me in 2019.

Wondering what free agency and the draft hold for ATL. The conventional wisdom sees defense building in the draft. Maybe a gamble RB as well. If ATL drafts a strong early RB then that signals trouble for their current guys. Ito Smith or other RB deeper in the depth chart might be a late grab in Best Ball for 2019.

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