By Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
ARIZONA – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!
ARI in 2018, David Johnson was back and we see a nice 4.6% increase in RB usages vs the last 6-year average. We can predict the RB slot well continue in 2019 and David Johnson should be a solid draft pick! In the early PPR ADP March 2019, DJ is the 10th RB coming off the board. That may be a tad low.
ARI needs a WR to go with Larry Fitzgerald. The 2 ARI WRs are at 40th WR (Kirk) and 46th (Fitzgerald). I am not bullish on Kirk unless the Rosen (QB 20th) can improve. I am thinking Fitz is a safer WR3 than Kirk! ARI needs some new blood in the WR group!
Rosen the ARI QB is a risk but nothing strongly at this point would support a dramatic improvement. I would keep the backup QB in ARI on speed dial especially in 2-QB leagues
The ARI TE position has been a forgotten position 10% usage over the last 6 years! Watch for any free agency moves. TE J Gresham Released