The baseball world was shocked on Tuesday when Manny Machado signed with the San Diego Padres on a 10-year $300 million deal. The Padres was one of a number of places which had been rumored to be in the market, but the fact both sides closed the deal still shocked many. He spent the second half of last season in the NL West and now he will be there for the long haul.
Now that Machado is in San Diego it raises some fascinating questions. Can he succeed in Petco is probably the main one, but there are others as well. What about the effect on the rest of the lineup? Who now misses out because of the Machado addition?
Let’s take a look below.
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Interestingly Machado never played in Petco after his move to the Dodgers last season. Therefore, we cannot get much of a feel for his performances in that park. However, what we did see was how he performs against the other NL West teams. In 55 plate appearances on the road at Chase Field, Coors Field and AT&T Park, Machado did not hit a single home run and he had a batting average of just .274, with four walks. It is a small sample size, but those numbers are not exactly setting the world on fire. However, Machado did fine in Dodgers Stadium, with seven home runs in 125 PA, giving him a 0.056 HR/PA rate, the highest of his career.
In fact, Machado’s entire 2018 season was one of his best. He matched his career highs in home runs, 37, exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel percentage and had the second highest launch angle of his career. At age 26 Machado is in the prime of his career power wise. However, Petco is not known for its benefits for power hitting. The positive is, that for right-handed hitters the difference between Petco and Dodger Stadium when it comes to home runs is very minor. In fact the difference in park factors for home runs is 0.93 in Petco and 0.94 in LA.
Where there is a change is in the drop off from Camden Yards. Camden has a park factor of 1.15 for right-handed hitters when it comes to home runs, a significant increase. That park factor difference is concerning but the fact Machado showed he could hit for power in Dodger Stadium is a positive. Again it was a small sample size but it means that this signing is not all doom and gloom for Machado and his power.
The Remainder of his Stat Line
As for his other numbers my initial concern was a drop off in combined runs and RBI. However, the Padres lineup has the potential to put up some decent numbers this season. It might not be the 190-200 combined that we have seen but it likely will not be far off. Batting average wise I do not see why we will see a sudden drop off, and he should be able to stay in the .280-.300 region demonstrating that his .259 BA from 2017 was the fluke.
Stolen base wise it is hard to predict. We have seen him get as high as 20, be as low as zero, and we have seen it increase in each of the last two years. Stolen bases for a player of Machado’s overall quality is hard to predict. It is such a decision statistic for these guys that we could easily just see Machado jump back up to 20. If I had to put a number on it I would aim for 10. That would give him a projected stat line of 80-330-90-10-.290.
The Rest of the Padres
Right now roster resource have Machado slotted into the the two hole. They also have him playing third base with Wil Myers confirmed to be in the outfield. Myers should still be an everyday player, and his numbers should not change massively with the move. However, the confirmation he will be in the outfield means there likely will not be a starting spot for Manuel Margot, Travis Jankowski, Franmil Reyes or Alex Dickerson. As for third base, other than the potential Myers may play in that position, there is no clear guy who was getting shifted out of position.
What it does add to this lineup, is an extra bat which should help increase the numbers of everyone. It will not be anything major but the entire lineup should see a boost in run and RBI totals. Overall, this signing is a plus for fantasy. Machado is not really displacing anyone with any fantasy value. The guys in the outfield who are confirmed to have less playing time because of this are all at best question marks in their own right.