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NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 10

Welcome to Week 10 of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week, our algorithm didn’t give us many great options.  While we picked the Seahawks instead of the Redskins, neither were victorious.  However, knowing our predicament, we provided two “against-the-rules” picks, and hit on both as the Bears and Panthers each scored more than 40 points, and won easily.  For those of you lucky enough to be alive this late into your season, read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on Twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

We certainly had some interesting division matchups last week.  The Steelers won a statement game in Baltimore.  The Dolphins and Jets squared off in a snoozer where the only touchdown scored was by a linebacker.  We even saw the Panthers put up a whopping 42 points against the drowning Buccaneers.  Maybe not the biggest upsets, but certainly very different outcomes across the league.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor, and avoid the below division games:

  • Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
  • Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
  • Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
  • Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

If you follow fantasy football, you know very well of what the unheard-of, Nick Mullens, was able to do against the Gruden led Raiders on Thursday night.  There was a great matchup on Sunday night between the Packers and Patriots, that wasn’t as close as hoped.  Then Monday night finished with the Titans taking care of a struggling Cowboys team.  One upset, and two home teams losing in prime-time.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
  • New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

This past weekend’s slate of games was not a good showing for home teams.  Combining Sunday’s slate of games with the Monday night matchup, only five of 12 games were won by the home team; a big shift from last week where home teams were overwhelmingly successful.  Like we said, there just weren’t a lot of great home teams that were truly favored in their games.  Be aware, and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
  • New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
  • New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Kansas City Chiefs over the Arizona Cardinals

The Kansas City Chiefs are a 16.5 point favorite this weekend.  Let that number sink in.  Do you really think Andy Reid loses at home, to a rookie quarterback?  While this may be a trap game, I think Reid is too good a coach to let that happen.  This should be a slam dunk pick.

Other options I like this week:

  • Green Bay Packers over the Miami Dolphins

If you watched the Dolphins play the Jets game last weekend, first off, I feel sorry for you. Secondly, you saw two teams that are really bad, with two struggling quarterbacks.  I’m pretty confident to say that if Brock Osweiler is the quarterback in Green Bay, the Packers win by double digits easily.  The Packers need this win bad, and the Dolphins are just too banged up to play against a team this talented.

  • Los Angeles Rams over the Seattle Seahawks

The Rams are just too good a team to lose two games in a row.  This pick is as simple as that, despite rule #1.

 

Overall record: 21-6

Last week record: 2-1

 

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

 

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