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Sunday Night Risk-Reward

By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk-Reward

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I wished to give my take on the Sunday Night Risk-Reward**

**Monday Games Sold Separately 🙂


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

Non-PPR-ranks-risk-rewards-week-1

PPR-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-1


The analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Sunday Night Risk-Reward slide110.jpg

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Slide2

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

Sunday Night Risk-Reward Slide23

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GB vs CHI 

Sunday Night Risk-Reward GB vs CHI

GB

Rodgers is back at home and gets a tough defense to sharpen his game up for this long season. CHI always plays GB tough. The CHI defense is at 60 and that is not an extreme challenge but Rodgers needs to be near top form to win. 

I have Rodgers at low risk 100 vs CHI 91.3 QB DAP. That is again going to be rough on Rodgers. He should get 3X scores as his crew is very solid. 

The WRs also will fight into a tough 71 WR DAP! I have Adams at low risk 95. He collects 2X and brings home the fantasy bacon! Cobb is a high-risk play at 72 and Allison a high-risk 54.9. It is hard to figure which of the other WRs goes off Sunday Night! Adams is DFS cash play and the other WRs in tournament plays. Choose your poison.

The most interesting for me is to see Graham debut as a packer against a 62 TE DAP. He is still a top week TE at low risk and is ranked at 89! DFS play for me. 

The RBs of Williams and Monty are going into a 52 RB DAP. They will keep the CHI defense honest and get Rodgers the time he needs to dissect the Bears! Williams is mid-risk 73 and Monty at a low risk 53. I expect a score and yards but hard to figure the distribution. Not DFS plays for me. 

The Kicker and DEF are solid plays in DFS.

Sunday Night Risk-Reward slide77-e1536157591700.jpg


CHI

Trubisky from CHI gets a chance to move forward and upset Vegas. He faces an easy GB defense ranked 34 overall.  The GB defense generates a weak 19 QB DAP. Feast or famine for him Sunday night. Given the spotty track record, he may not be able to go off. I rank him a high risk 33! I longshot DFS play only.  I would not be surprised at 4X or oX scores. A broad range of outcomes. 

The new CHI WRs have to face a welcome of 19 WR DAP. Basically please score lots of points CHI WRs. Sets up as a shootout over 50 total points.  Robinson is a nice low risk 81. Cash and tournament play in DFS. Watching for the emergence of Miller. He is high risk 55 but can score and shine. DFS tournament plays only. Not expecting much from the others. 

The TE spot with Burton is toughest of all in here at 69 TE DAP and I rank Burton at mid-risk 80. He can score and will definitely be in the mix for targets. DFS tournament plays only. 

Finally, Howard and Cohen the RBs can also collect scores vs a 32 GB RB DAP. Howard is an ok DFS cash game play at low risk 69 but Cohen is a fade for me in DFS cash as I think the other pieces of the CHI team will be used and Cohen ranked at low risk at 36 will not be used. The game script seems not to favor him. DFS tournaments only. 

CHI Kicker and DEF are solid plays! 

Sunday Night Risk-Reward CHI

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