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Sunday Low Scoring Games

By John Bush

Sunday Low Scoring Games

 

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I wished to give my take on the Sunday Day Low Scoring Games**

**Sunday Night and Monday Games Sold Separately 🙂


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

Non-PPR-ranks-risk-rewards-week-1

PPR-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-1


Sunday Low Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Sunday Low Scoring Games slide110.jpg

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Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide2

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

Slide23

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Low Scoring Games predicted to have game totals of 44/3 or under

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JAC vs NYG

BA

JAC

JAC is favored to win an away game using its lauded defense to shut down Manning and company. Bortles will lead his team into a predicted easy NYG defense ranked at 36. He gets a QB DAP of 28 which is very easy. Bortles scores 2X at least. Bortles for me is still a high risk lower ranked QB at 45 given the early season and its an away game. 

The JAC WRs face a tougher than average NYG defense of 56.1 DAP. That is not so tough to shut down the passing to WR but it served to push the WRs. I rank Cole as a high risk 68 and a tournament DFS play at best. Westbrooke and Moncrief are mid to high risk ranked 40 to 46. Not expecting much here. Chark is on my watch list for later in the season relevance. Start a watch list this early season and grab these 3 4th WRs if they are ascending in redrafts or dynasty. 

The TE ASJ can have a nice day with a score or so. He faces a nice and easy 18 TE DAP. He can surprise in DFS tournaments. I still have him at high risk 66. He has the same potential to score as Cole on fewer targets. Sleeper play by the numbers. 

The main show in this game should be Fournette at low risk 88! He gets an easy 33 RB DAP to “run” into! Expect 2X scores. Solid DFS play in cash. Yeldon is high risk ranked 2. Corey Grant is on my watch list as well. Expect he can ascend to RB 2 on this team. 

K and Def do good as well. 

jac.jpg


NYG

Manning and crew get a tough start vs the JAC Defense ranked 80! Manning is ranked low risk but a 9. I envision a hard time with turnovers vs a 118 QB DAP.  I assume he gets yardage but it will be below average. His WRs will need to be efficient for NYG to win this game. 

OBJ is a stud and low risk 94 ranked but he fights into a JAC WR DAP of 103!  He gets catches and yards but may not score. Shepard is a good WR2 but has the same issues. I rank him high risk 67. Both get catches but scores are the question. Fade both in DFS.

Engram was the boss last year and hopes to continue moving his game up. He though has to deal with a tough 64 TE DAP. I rank him low risk 77. He should be a check down TE and might score. I would fade in DFS. 

If NYG wins it is because Barkley is who everyone thinks he is. He faces off into a nice RB 33 DP! He scores and gets 100 rushing yards as OBJ/Engram will keep the JAC defense on its toes. I rank him low risk 84. Use in DFS tournaments. 

Sunday Low Scoring Games NYG

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DEN vs SEA

Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide20

DEN

DEN faces into an always tough SEA defense. They were tough last and pundits seem to think they will not be as strong. DEN vs a 60 Defense. 60 is not an extreme Defensive ranking but above average.

Keenum gets to start in his new DEN home. He, however, is a mid risk low ranked QB vs a tough QB 82 DAP. He scores 2X but will be limited in opportunities.

DEN WRs will help Keenum out vs a 41 WR DAP. D Thomas is low risk 86 and scores with yards and Sanders also collects a score but is mid risk 81 ranked. I nice tandem but who goes off today? Always trick question. DFS tournament plays only.  Place Sutton on the watch list for later in the season or in case of injury.

The TE will face a tough 64 TE DAP and will be a few catches check down guy. Fade in DFS. 

Given the RB DAP of 68 and the lack of clarity in this RBBC, I have both RBs lower ranked between 56 and 45. Booker is a low risk 56 and Freeman is a high risk 45. Fade in DFS, Who goes off? Hard to figure. Freeman is the long-term answer but early in this season adds to the uncertainty surrounding him. 

K and Def do ok. I do think DEN defense is a DFS play at a low risk 83 vs a 60ish DEF DAP! 

Sunday Low Scoring Games DEN


SEA

Wilson and team go into DEN and it is always a challenging game. The DEN defense is ranked close to average. He gets a shot at the upset. He should collect yards and scores (pass and rushing based). I rank him at a low risk 77 ranked vs a 67 QB DAP. He is a good DFS tournament play because of his mobility! 

The WRs will face a tough DAP of 90 and that may limit the scoring. I love Baldwin at low risk 87 and in DFS tournaments only. Lockett is the clear WR2 and can collect points. Lockett is mid risk 55 ranking. I will be watching how Marshall and Jaron Brown. 

SEA gets to harvest the loss of Graham and maybe Vannett collects vs an easy 34 TE DAP. I rank him at low risk but low rank at 25. He is a DFS fade though.

The RBs of Carson and Penny face into very tough 92 RB DAP.  Carson will get a little action as will Penny but I did not even rank Penny. Not expecting much.

SEA will be stressed all day and seem to be set to lose this game. 

I would still play SEA Def vs 9 DEF DAP in DFS tournaments! 

Sunday Low Scoring Games SEA

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CAR vs DAL

Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide21

CAR

CAM leads the Panthers against DAL in an interesting showdown. This game has a lot of players to watch for further considerations. Unknowns here especially in DAL WRs and TEs!

CAM fights into a slightly below average 47 QB DAP. His rushing ability is never really accounted for in the DEF! He scores 3X. I have him as a strong play low risk 95 ranked. He should own the DAL defense at home. DFS Cash play. 

My high-ranking of CAM is also based on his WRs DAP of easy 33! They collect scores and points. Funchess seems solid but mid risk 65. Moore has the talent but is a high risk 56 ranked in his first game. Watch his show on Sunday. Maybe T Smith gets a long score hard to trust. Funchess an ok DFS tournament play while Moore is a potential separator in the big tournaments! 

Olsen has some injury issues and is questionable on the injury report. I have him vs a tough DAL TE DAP of 69 a low risk 86 but I might move him to mid risk on my sheets Sunday morning. Be alert for late news on Olsen! He can score but seems less than sure now with a last-minute injury pop-up. 

Finally, McCaffrey gets the spotlight vs a 50 RB DAP. He catches his PPR points and a score or so. Low risk ranked 88 DFS cash game lock type of player! CJ not ranked as they will not need him so much. He might steal a red zone score from Cam and Olsen. If Olsen out I will move CJ into a potential tournament play. 

The kicker, not good but the CAR Def is a good play in DFS! 

Sunday Low Scoring Games CAR


DAL

The DAK Attack will face a tough road game vs a 64 Ranked DEF. Given the WR and TE unknowns, DAK and Zeke will have to win this game for DAL.

DAK will contend with a tough 63 QB DAP. His rushing ability can balance that and DAK gets 2X scores or more. I, however, rank him high risk 43 because of the loss of WRs and TEs from last year. DFS pass. 

The DAL WRs vs a CAR 30 WR DAP and are led by Hurns at a low risk 63. He can collect and would be the safe play. The mystery is Gallup. Is this player a star in the making? He is a watch for now player. Gallup is a 43 ranked high-risk player. Beasley can collect in PPR formats as a check down guy. I rank him mid risk 36. Can Austin do anything? He had the offseason buzz which has been quiet of late. Curious about his role!

I did not rank a TE as it is unclear who is the TE 1. Whoever faces a tough go vs 79 TE DAP! 

Zeke is ranked low risk 91. He will see the box stack and a 108 RB DAP. He earns his points Sunday!

A fade for DFS is the easiest thing to do with all of DAL

Sunday Low Scoring GamesDAL

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BAL vs BUF

LOW

BAL

BAL is favored in this predicted lowest scoring game of the week. Both Defenses are overall just average. So it might surprise in points scored. Flaco faces a tough 90 QB DAP and will get some points but certainly not a great many early but he figures to have the ball much more than thought and can produce more points. Flaco is low risk but 17 ranked because of the early game script. Flaco is going to be feast or famine in here. Could be a DFS gamble play. 

His WRs also will be under pressure vs a 70 QR DAP! Crabtree figures to collect the majority of Flaco passes. I rank him at low risk 81. He could be a DFS tournament play. Brown also has the talent for success and could collect points in here. I rank him at mid risk 62! I will watch Snead for understanding his role only. 

The TEs for BAL can collect in here vs a nice and easy TE 37 DAP. I have Hurst at 46 and mid-risk. Could be a surprising separator in DFS tournaments. 

The BAL RBs should win this game for BAL. They get a 43 RB DAP to go against. I rank Collins at mid risk 75. He scores and collects points for your team. Tournament play in DFS only. 

K and DEF nice plays for DFS

Sunday Low Scoring Games BAL


BUF

Peterman gets a very tough debut vs a 102.3 QB DAP. He should get chewed up in here. I rank him at low risk 1.9.  Not much expected. Hurts his WRs/TEs chances. 

Bal DEF give the BUF WRs a tough 86 DAP. K Ben is the clear WR1 but is still a mid risk 69 ranked. Any passing targets should go to him. Do not expect much. Watch the others. 

Clay the TE should be the check down TE PPR guy vs a nice 12 TE DAP. The sad QB limits Clay in here. I rank him mid-risk 46! 

Finally, any chance BUF has is through McCoy vs an easy 12 RB DAP. I have him a MiD-Risk 71 because BAL will stack the box because the QB to WR and TE will not be working. McCoy needs to collect early as the game gets out of hand and BUF is forced to pass! 

BUF Def is a high risk and the Kicker may not get opportunities. 

Sunday Low Scoring GamesBUF

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