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QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

By John Bush

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

As we travel into the last part of the preseason, I wanted to remind my readers of last year’s positional performances and consistency as compared to current 2018ADP.  

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP and Questions to consider:

  • Which Players had excellent 2017 metrics yet are not highly ranked by 2018 ADP?
  • Which Players had weaker 2017 metrics yet are more highly ranked by 2018 ADP?

The metrics I wish to cover in this article are related to the QB position. (See table below)

  • Weeks a Player was in the Top Ten of that Position
  • Games Played (More Games Increases Data Points and Certainty)
  • % of Played Games the Player was in the Weekly Top Ten in Position
  • PPR Fantasy Points Per Game

 

I sorted the players by %Top Ten Games They Delivered in 2017. The top players in 2017 were Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, and Smith.

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide1


 

 

This visual plot below highlights these top players from the above table by weeks TT, %TT Games and Actual Games played.

Note the weakness in the amount of data for Bradford and Jimmy G. They did well but in few games. Uncertainty must be higher for those players in 2018. Watson, Rodgers, and Fitzpat were the next level up in a few games as well.

Wilson seems the most certain for 2018 but a team always changes, and SEA is no exception. Loss of Jimmy Graham will have some level of impact in 2018.

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide2


 

 

Next up in the table below are the second level of QBs based on % TT games they produced. All these had 26% TT games or lower. Goff at 17 PPR Pts/G and Brees at 16 FP/G seem the 2 standouts in this group! Note that Keenum was close to these 2 QBs as well.

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide3

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide4


2017 Metrics vs 2018 ADP

I added to the metrics table the list of 2018 ADP vs the 2017 data. Note Luck was out in 2017 and is not in here. I present by the DIFF metric, the players that are the extremes between the 2017 data and 2018 ADP.

Brees is at 6th ADP in 2018 but was ranked 26% in %TT in 2017 for a DIFF of -20. The expectation for 2018 is he moves back to previous years. Remember the NO in 2017 dramatically shifted to more run-based offense. Brees was used less in passing. Does the NO team move to more passing? The public thinks so at 6th ADP. The risk must be considered higher?

Matt Ryan is much like Brees at -28 DIFF. Why will the ATL team go back to 2016? Be cautious.

Mahomes is at -44 DIFF! That metric screams caution to me.

On the other hand, Smith was at 5th in 2017 and is 14th in 2018 ADP A +14 DIFF. Does the move to WAS really mean he drops that much? I would think a good 2QB and low-end 1st QB.

Taylor and Winston were +12s and have room for improvement this year. Injury scare with Taylor and Winston missing games may nullify any forward progress.

Bortles at a +12 seems to have a way forward and I have been collecting him in best ball leagues as a 2QB. Streaming option!

Long shots but metrics support changes of Bradford (overcome injury) at +24 and McCowan at +26. Late QB streamers or early season DFS targets.

 

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide5


A visual plot of the main QBs DIFF numbers with 2018 ADPs and 2017 %TT metrics.

A landscape view of the data looking at QBs that did Worse vs Better (%TT vs ADPs). The yellow bars that are positive are the potential overlays in the QBs vs the negative DIFFs are the underlays in QBs!

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide6


Consistency vs Max and Min Weekly Efforts.

The tables below show the week 1 to 17 in 2017 and the FP scored by that player. I highlighted in yellow that top ten scores for that week. Note the string of TT vs non-TT.

For example, Wilson has a great stretch from W7 to 14! He only had 5 weeks below a TT finish! Find the QBs with good potential in 2018.

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide7


Max vs Min Metrics vs MAX/DIFF.

I calculated the 2017 Best and Worst Weeks for FP/G of each QB (MAX vs MIN) as well as FP Differences between those player extremes. I then normalized the MAX data by division using the DIFF number. That allows comparisons across all players

Note Wentz at 1.74 was off the charts. His worst of 13.2 was the least bad MIN score of all the QBs measured in the first Table!

Stafford was at 1.43 and Cousins was at 1.37.

Three key QB for 2018. Their floor is considered very high for 2018!

Dalton at 0.9, McCowan at 0.96, and Prescott at 0.95 had the lowest 2017 floors and caution is suggested for 2018

 

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide8

 

The plot of the MAX/DIFF metrics highlighting potential 2018 QB FP Floors.

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide9


The Second QB Group from 2017: Consistency vs Max and Min Weekly Efforts.

I high repeated the metrics and associated figures from 2017 using the second QB group as discussed earlier in this article.

Note these are second tiers since they were very low in TT weekly production. They were inconsistent in 2017 and caution in drafting is suggested by the data analysis.

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide10


The Second QB Group from 2017: Max vs Min Metrics vs MAX/DIFF.

Finding the highest MAX/DIFF allows finding the highest FP Floors for 2018.

Brees at 2.02 jumps off the screen and those expecting improvement in 2018 certainly will be comforted by this metric. Ryan at 1.59, Goff at 1.37, Keenum at 1.29 and Goff at 1.21 all have strong metrics and projected high Floors.

This aspect is part of the reason for success in “late QB” drafting!

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide11


The visual plot of the MAX/DIFF metrics highlighting potential 2018 QB FP Floors. Brees really stands out!

 

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide12

 

 

Keep Watch for the RBs. TEs and WRs articles in this series. Thanks

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