Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3

By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3 

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3  has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  1. Predicted Total Game Points
  2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
  3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide1

Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23

Figure 3 and 4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide03

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide01

High Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday Night

This is the game you have been waiting for!

Stack-o-Matic for DFS players (Oak favored stacks).

Use players in here early and often!

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide17

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide15


The implied final score is 30 Points OAK (4TDs) and 24 WAS! (3 TDs)

WAS has the opportunity to answer for the last two weeks of poor play! Can they take advantage of a +1.4 overall DAP! This is the best chance for them to score multiples! Cousins has underwhelmed us for 2 weeks. Tonight he faces a get-well +1.8 DAP and should deliver those passing TDs (Mid-Risk +77). If that happens it might be time to sell if you have a QB on your team! The fulcrum issue is the RB position! If they can deal with a-7 RB DAP then WAS can win! I think the rushing side of the RBs is silent and Chris Thompson will pass-catch score for you! I picked him up everywhere I could! If Perine is quite he might be a buy low long-term investment type! He is a high-risk +61 NonPPR RB to +53 PPR RB!. The WAS WRs are lined up to deliver a score or two. Crowder in PPR is a +69 low-risk player. He faces a +2.2 DAP and can give you a dozen catches! I think Pryor is the TD catcher here but that is a high-risk proposition this week! He is at +83 to +77 WR at high-risk! Reed the TE faces a tougher go against a -3.2 DAP. Given his injury issues, I have him at a really optimistic +95 low-risk. This may be a mirage though. If Reed does not play Davis could score!

Final Note is the WAS has the high number of players this week at High-Risk and OAK has one of the lowest levels of risky players! Factor that into your DFS!




Oak on offense faces a -2 overall DAP! I suspect that dulls the OAK attack a little this week! The main issue is the -5.4 WR DAP. That should lower the WR output by a score or so. I have Crabtree at +94 WR6 ish and low risk. He should collect 2X scores! I think that Cooper is the weaker link in this game. I have him at a low WR1/High WR2 this week. Cooper is mid-risk and may have a one-score ceiling! Carr is thus a QB 8th or so low-risk player at +90. He should get 3X scores. Even with Lynch at +85 (RB 2), I have him at mid-risk. He faces a +4.2 and should score! Cook the TE should collect as well facing a +4.8 DAP. He might even get 2X scores! It seems to be scores all around here. Cooper may be the odd man out! Beware in DFS!






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