by John Bush
PPR Rankings & Risk Range Skew Week 1
I am beginning with my in-season time here at Fakepigskin; my rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column. I have to include my metric based risk assessment and a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.
I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a ranking range skew number.
Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.
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High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.
Figure 1 Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.
Therefore the best-case situation is a highly ranked player that has the low-risk tag. While worst is a low ranked player with high risk.
In Figure 2 diagram, the concept of an outcome range skew is presented. It’s important to see the tendency of the outcomes. I invented this metric classifier to achieve that. Skew numbers go for worse than average tendency in high positive skew numbers and best rankings having high negative skew numbers. The diagram of this metric gives us the player’s outcome tendency.
Thus a high ranked player with low risk and negative skew suggests a stronger player this week vs a low ranked high risk high positive skew number.
Figure 2 Outcome Range Skew
I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).
Figure 3. Defense and Special Teams
Figure 4. Kickers
Figure 5. Quarterbacks
Figure 6 to 8. PPR Running Backs
Figure 9 and 10 PPR Tight Ends
Figure 11 to 14. PPR Wide Receivers