Last week was a tough week. There was so much I wanted to play for the high priced running backs and somehow ended up fading Zeke. I had a ton of lineups with DJ, Bell, and Gordon but none with DJ, Bell, and Zeke. In the end I had my worst week of the year. Another big mistake I made was I played $0 in cash games. Draft kings had all these mid-season celebration tournaments and I went all in. All we can do is learn from our mistakes and move on.
So with that said Monday morning I was ready to dive into week 11. This week I am forcing myself to play much more cash and I already have a build that I like. Some of those guys will show up here.
At quarterback 3 guys jumped off the page to me right away. Brady 7800 @SF, Roethlisberger 7500 @CLE, and Cousins 5800 home against GB.
As I thought more about it Brady and Ben scare me. Both are in great spots but on the road. Both could end up being hurt by blowouts and their running backs going off. I am going to fade these two in cash, I will use them in GPPs.
This moved me onto Cousins who is really cheap. He gets the Packers D that is in shambles and who just got torched by Marriota and Demarco Murray through the air for 5 TDs. This price and this spot make this a very solid play. But researching Cousins made me look at the other side of the ball.
Aaron Rodgers 7600 @WSH. Right now this is my guy. In his last 4 games, since Lacy has been hurt Rodgers has scored over 30 DK points twice and 27+ in the other 2. The Packers have no running game to speak of. Rodgers has scored or passed 100% of GB touchdowns this year. He is on pace for 39 passing TDs and 5 rushing. GB has a 24 pt implied vegas total, making me think Rodgers is good for 3 more tds this week.
I will either be playing Cousins or Rodgers in cash most likely. Rodgers is the best bet for the highest raw total, Cousins is in a good spot to be one of the top pt/$ players on the week.
My favorite running back plays this week are Le’Veon Bell 8800 @CLE, Lesean McCoy 6900 @ Cin, Todd Gurley 5000 home against MIA, and maybe Thomas Rawls 4300 home against PHI.
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Bell is the chalk this week, 3 down + goal line back getting Cleveland. He is expensive but a guy I am not passing up in cash. I will fade some in tournaments for sure though. My next play is Shady McCoy, I am not hearing anything about this guy coming into this week and I love it. Fresh off a buy, should be healthy now and is at a reduced price of 6900. The Bengals haven’t been very good against the run, most recently giving up a season high on the ground on Monday night to the Giants of all teams. The idea right now is to be much higher than the field on McCoy in tournaments.
On to Todd Gurley, I know… I know. On paper not a good match-up, a rookie quarterback making his 1st NFL start, and Gurley has been bad (or at least the Rams o-line has been bad) but this dude is getting touches. You are basically guaranteed 17+ touches and he is only 5000. He has been used in the passing game more often and Miami is playing their second straight game in California. This could be the spot for Gurley to explode or at least smash value with a 20 point game. He should be lowly owned as well.
The last guy on this list is Thomas Rawls. With the C.J. Prosise hype going on, I think Rawls could come back and get all the 1st/2nd down work and produce. You should be getting him at a very low ownership, I like taking some chances with him in tournaments. Prosise is safer but Rawls could be the guy winning you tournaments.
I have 2 plays that standout more than any other right now. Stefon Diggs 7000 home against AZ and Davante Adams 6700 @WSH.
Diggs has seen targets of 13,14, & 15 the last 3 games. With Norv Turner gone the Vikings have moved Diggs into the slot for most snaps the last 3 weeks. Throughout the season Diggs is playing 57% (stat courtesy of Rotoworld) of his snaps inside, recently those numbers are even higher. Patrick Peterson has only played 6% of his snaps on the slot all year. Bruce Arians has come out and said they will put Peterson on Diggs, he didn’t say Peterson will shadow him all day. He certainly could, but I would argue that is a winnable match-up for Diggs anyways. There is a reason Peterson doesn’t go to the slot often, Peterson is a big corner and its hard to stick with the laterally quick guys. I welcome this news as it should keep Diggs’ ownership much lower.
Arizona has given up solid PPR games to slot receivers all year. Jeremy Kerley 7/71/1 & 8/102/1, Doug Baldwin 6/69, Robert Woods 6/51, Humphries 6/67, and Edelman 7/66. Diggs gets a lot more targets than all these guys so another 8+ catch game is highly likely.
Diggs’ 16 current pace is 122/1420/4 if you take out the 3 games he was on the injury report and very banged up his 16 game pace would be 160/1936/6.4. That is a 5 game sample where he has been the top PPR receiver in the league. This dude is flat out balling. He is basically Antonio Brown but $2.5k cheaper.
Next I love Davante Adams. No one has benefited more from the Packers shift to a short passing game than Adams. It’s true last year he really struggled but this year he has essentially passed Randall Cobb on the pecking order. Adams has the ability to win on the outside, move into the backfield and run swing routes, and move into the slot and run quick hitting routes. He is the most complete receiver on this Packers team.
Him and Diggs are very similar players and are being used pretty similarly as well. I really like that Davante is winning down field but also getting a lot of targets near the line of scrimmage. This keeps his floor relatively high.
Davante’s 16 game pace right now is 89/1104/10. Over his last 6 games his pace is 134/1392/12 and he is still priced like a WR2/3 on DK. With the Packers passing so much, Adams is a lock for 8 or more targets each week. He is their number 1 play maker and all season he has shown a knack for getting in the end zone. Diggs and Adams are elite PPR weapons right now and priced fairly low compared to other players with their floor/ceiling combinations.
The other 2 guys I’m looking at right now are Tyreek Hill 4500 and Golden Tate 5300. Hill last week received a huge spike in targets and snaps. He actually received a target on 13/39 snaps. I need to dive into this to see if this should continue moving forward and have to pay attention to the Jeremy Maclin injury. If Maclin is out, Hill will be a huge upside play.
Golden Tate is priced at a very sweet spot. He has been a big part of this offense for each of the past 4 games after a very slow start. The Jags corners are stronger on the outside, I see Golden Tate easily getting to 6+ catches. A great cash play this weekend.
Jordan Reed 5900 all day against Green Bay. Last week the Packers were torched by Delanie Walker, I would expect more in the same from Jordan Reed in a game I think will shoot out a little bit. In their playoff game with GB last year Reed had 9/120/1. Reed is my favorite play on the weekend, especially in tournaments as it will be contrarian. It will be even more contrarian if Gronk misses this week, which looks like a real possibility.
If that happens I do like Martellus Bennett at 3700 but he will surely be the chalk. Another guy to keep an eye on will be Jared Cook who is the stone minimum coming off injury. This is a punt GPP play but could pay off if he gets you 3/50/1 a line that is well within his range of outcomes.
3 Value Plays I didn’t hit on above
Corey Coleman 4700 vs Pit, We all think the Steelers are going to crush this week so Cleveland should be passing a lot. Someone should benefit from that, I like both Coleman and Pryor but with the $900 discount I will probably have more Coleman.
James Starks 4200 @ WSH, he came back last week and out snapped Ty Montgomery 55 to 22. The Packers can’t run the ball but Washington can’t stop the run either. Starks might be able to get you 60-70 yards on the ground and he is decent in the receiving game as well. Also at some point I would expect the Packers to get a rushing touchdown from a running back, this could be the week. Starks received a carry on a 2 pt conversion attempt, so they are at least considering running the ball near the goal line.
Cobi Hamilton 3000 @ Cle, he is currently the starter in Pittsburgh opposite AB. He hasn’t done much but did receive a few deep shots last week. This is a hail marry play that should go low owned and doesn’t need much to pay off. As long as he remains the starter this week over Sammie Coates who has broken fingers and can’t catch anyway I like taking a few shots here.
Stats from Pro Football Reference