Todd Gurley- I like him both in GPP and Cash. The 49ers look like a mess. I fully expect the Rams to roll the niners here. Chip Kelly likes to play fast and that turns into a lot of 3 and outs. The Rams are likely to control the ball for 35+ minutes leaning heavily on Gurley. He could carry the ball 30 times and this is a prime spot for multiple touchdowns. This is a rare opportunity it is smart to pay up at running back, especially in a week that I don’t love the high priced wideouts. Another note, I think the Thursday night game will be low scoring and not put up many fantasy points. Playing cash and GPP’s I like to include games like that in the slate as it can eliminate players wanting to watch those players in the season opener. If you are using Gurley, play the full week slate.
Lamar Miller- At $7k on Draft Kings he is a little cheaper than other top backs. With Chicago’s Defense banged up this is a big spot for Miller. Miller plays well in the passing game and at home this has the potential to be a route. I am all over the double RB stack. Miller has a phenomenal game script and I expect a big coming out party in Houston.
Spencer Ware- Straight cash homey. Probably going to be over rostered in GPPs. The Charger’s run d is flat out bad, they have a nice shiney green 27th next to them on Draft Kings this week giving up 125 yards per game on the ground and 17 tds last year. Ware ran 11 for 96 and 2 touchdowns at San Diego last year. All this with a nice low price point and JC most likely out will lead Ware to being chalk this week. Don’t overthink in Cash, just use him. If you want to leverage off him in a GPP think about Melvin Gordon in this same game. No one will be on him in what looks like a bad matchup but if Gordon goes off and Ware is pedestrian you basically eliminate half the field.
Sammy Watkins- This is probably as high as I’m paying for a wideout this week. When paying up I’m probably not going above Watkins unless I can get to Nuke and I’m not rostering Miller. Watkins last year in his final 6 games was Odell Beckham Junior. He paced at 93/1810/16 if you project over the whole season. Baltimore’s defense has a stigma of being good, news flash, they aren’t. Couple that with little preseason time and the calf problem people won’t be on him. He will be a full go and at $6900 on draft kings will bring home a ton of value this week.
Tajae Sharpe- At $3k and coming off a terrific preseason its hard to ignore. I think the Vikings stout D will slow the power running game of the Titans a little bit. I would expect Sharpe to get 6-8 targets, so at $3k he is a safe cash play, that should easily get you 3 or more times the dollar value.
Jordan Reed- Until he fails I think I will keep rolling him out there. He won people a ton of money late last year, he has out-performed Gronk for weeks but is still much less. I like using Reed in my flex when making lineups this week and going with a stacked option like Barnidge or Cook at TE for GPPs. At 6600 he is far less than the good wide receivers and last year the Steelers D was very friendly to Tight Ends. This will be a pass happy game with question marks at running back on both sides.
The Browns Passing game- Before injuries and trades RGIII looked like the no doubt value for those wanting to save money at QB in week 1. At $5600 on draft kings he was far less than other middle of the road QBs. Through the preseason RGIII has looked like a different player, he looks like an NFL quarter back again. The Eagles secondary isn’t terrible but they are nothing to fear. In GPPs I love stacking RGIII with 2 pass catchers. Corey Coleman, Terrell Pryor, and/or Gary Barnidge, any of the 3 could get into the endzone, I think at least 2 will. Coleman had a quiet preseason and at $5100 he will be very low owned in week 1. I like his sneaky value. Pryor at $3k is dirt cheap and is a big play threat and at 6’ 5” will definetly be utilized in the red zone. I love stacking one of those receivers with Barnidge, I really think this type of stack could be winning someone a million dollars this week.
Favorite: RGII, Coleman, Barnidge
The Packers Passing Game but not what you think– This could be a little trickier. We don’t actually know how much Jordy Nelson will play. He is a “full go” but without taking a snap in over a year, he couldn’t possibly be ready conditioning wise to play all of the snaps, especially in hot humid Jacksonville where the forecast is 91 degrees. Jordy will probably be low owned so he is in play in GPPS but I would stay away in cash. With that said Rodgers and Cook is a nice little cash stack, or just Cook. I would touch the other pass catchers in cash. In GPPs I again love a double stack with Rodgers. Rodgers’ price point will keep his ownership down and the uncertainty around Jordy will keep the Packers recievers ownership low all around. Jordy’s limited role should open up playing time for Jared Abbrederis. He not Davante Adams has emerged as what looks like Green Bay’s number 3. I think even with Jordy on the field Abbrederis will run as the number 3 a lot. Jordy could be used more as a decoy in week 1. Abbrederis had a very productive camp and preseason and at $3300 on DK coupled with Cook and Rodgers you have the ability to get to anyone else you might want. That is my favorite “Pack Stack” (sorry for the horrible name) for week 1.
Favorite: Rodgers, Abbrederis, Cook, and throw in Allen Robinson as a correlation play
Lions and Colts= All of the fantasy points: I’m pretty sure the Colt’s pass d is the weakest in the NFL. Couple that with an offense that has a 33 year old running back and nothing behind him, Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett and you have a game set to see a ton of passing. In GPPs you couldn’t go wrong with either Luck or Stafford or any of the top 3 receivers on either team. You could set the over under at 6 combinedTD passes in this game and I would take the over. Vontae Davis is out for the Colts and under Jim Bob Cooter the Lions like to play fast. Marvin Jones is severely under priced this week on DK at $4600, so he will be chalk. But if you couple him and Tate together you have differentiated yourself from the pack. Throw in Hilton and/or Moncrief and you have a crazy stack. These stacks can get a little pricier so look to save with a cheaper RB and TE like Cook above and Ware or a Patriots RB.
Favorite: Stafford, Jones, Tate, Moncrief, and Hilton Warning: DO NOT TOUCH EITHER DST!!!
All Seahawks: This stack starts with the Seahawks D. Miami looks like a mess, they start the season in Seattle. It does not look good. You could grab Christine Michael who will have a role in week 1. Rawls will play but C Mike at $3700 could get a lot of run especially if it gets out of hand. Miami is such a mess defensively right now that you would even decide to role with the Seahawks passing game, my only worries is the score gets out of hand. Speaking of getting out of hand. Miami will probably have to pass a lot, expect slot receiver Jarvis Landry to put up nice numbers. Seattle is much harder on outside recievers, most people will scare away from Landry in this matchup. I think Landry is a nice little option. Lastly since we are going with Seattle D in this GPP scenario, lets throw in Tyler Lockett and hope to get a double dip TD.
Favorite: GPP- Seattle D, Christine Michael, Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry Cash: Just Seattle D & C Mike
Let me know your thoughts or hit me up @BigTimeSethyBob on twitter