Dorial Green-Beckham and The AFC South Present The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. The Houston Texans bought a few scratch offs at 7-Eleven this off season, and they’re hoping a serviceable Quarterback is revealed. The Indianapolis Colts are building their own Ringley Brothers Offensive Circus Act, and is likely to make another run at the big game. The Jacksonville Jaguars are quitely starting to build a solid foundation for a seemingly positive future in a soft division, and they’re just hoping their Quarterback can something, no — anything, to make them look at least a tiny bit smart for passing up on Teddy Bridgewater last year. The Tennessee Titans passed up on a pretty good trade offer to keep Marcus Mariota and make him their sugar mama. Does he have the goods?
The only thing holding DeAndre Hopkins back from reaching his full potential is quarterback play. Brian Hoyer won’t be the answer, and Ryan Mallett is unproven. There’s a chance that “Nuk” will cost less mid-season, but his owners are likely to exhibit patience with the team’s top target. Arian Foster is going to get as much workload as his hamstrings can handle this season. Speaking of hamstrings, I’ll go ahead and hamstring the Cecil Shorts‘ games missed O/U at 6. Whether you thought Jaelen Strong is a worthwhile prospect or not, he’s going to have to take on targets this year. He’s simply the best of the rest, and his potential production should make him a bargain at his rookie draft ADP. The industry is down on him, and he’s reportedly having difficulty at camp. I think he’s a pretty good target in trades while his value is probably as low as it is going to be.
You’re either on the Andre Johnson train or you’re not. I do think it’s probably unrealistic to think he can attain double digit touchdowns this year considering the fact that they have 4 other guys competing for targets. While he’s on the wrong side of 30 and his overall TD rate has been suppressed, there’s a strong case to be made that Quarterback play had much to do with it. If you look back at the Texans WR corps, all WRs have had low TD rates — but Johnson has been on the top. While it was a younger version of Johnson, he did achieve a .09 TD rate in 2007 with a decent QB. T.Y. Hilton came on last year, but I have to wonder how much of that had to do with necessity. Using the Career Graph App over at Rotoviz.com, we can see that Reggie Wayne demanded more receptions and yards in 2012, and then just about the same split in 2013.
Donte Moncrief is going to have to grab some bench time now, and Phillip Dorsett will also likely cut into at least a little of Hilton’s market share. I think we’re looking back to somewhere between 2013 and 2013 for Johnson’s comparable production, which should be to the tune of 7-8 TDs this year with about 20-21% Target market share.
Anyone that has ever read anything about my style of dynasty management knows I’m somewhat of an age guy. While I want to maximize trade value for aging receivers, there’s also a point at which I think a guy can be so old that he now comes at a value. I like to call this The Grandpa Effect. If you’re picking up plenty of 2nd and 3rd round rookie picks throughout the year and you have one or two left over after trade-up packages, these picks can buy you “Puddy Players.” No one is getting a first round pick for Johnson, but I’d be happy to bring on 7 TDs for a 2nd round pick to boot.
About Phillip Dorsett – I think I like him, although I don’t buy he is Hilton’s replacement. I simply think the Colts are building a very Packeresqe offense and will keep them both next year. #HotTaek Having said that, give me the guy that will likely take over for Johnson, and I’m still buying Moncrief as the cheapest asset in this offense.
I was a buyer of Allen Robinson last year when he was falling in the early 2nd round of some drafts. I’m still a buyer today. If you check out Playerprofiler.com and query T.J. Yeldon, you see his player comparable, Carlos Hyde.
What’s interesting is that while the measurables relate between the two, when I watch Yeldon I see more of the things I wished I saw from Hyde when he came out in terms of seeing the right hole or waiting for the lane to open up. Admittedly, I fell for the Toby Gerhart trap with the best of them, so naturally I’m on board with Yeldon here. I do think I’m probably more cautious than most early on, as I think Jacksonville keeps games close and pulls out more wins on the defensive side this year. Yeldon will be an early volume play, but it’s going to take a year for the touchdown’s to catch up I think. Blake Bortles looked like dog-sh!t last year. I hope he looks less like dog-sh!t this year. This is a fun and family friendly fantasy football website, so I made sure to dress my dog-sh!t up. Also, put that in your alliteration pipe and smoke it.
Marqise Lee is all but forgotten at this point, and everyone becomes a value at some point. The guy was hurt last year, and it’s tough for a rookie to come in and get in the groove after being hurt early on, especially when his Quarterback is being described with bad dog-sh!t references. I didn’t even like the guy coming out, and now I like the guy purely based on price alone. So yeah.
There is a lot of hesitancy in the community for the aforementioned Dorial Green-Beckham. I understand why as he comes with character concerns and he landed in one of the worst spots to land, kind of like that skydiver I saw on “Faces of Death” that landed in the everglades and got demolished by a bunch of alligators. I’m sure Ken Wisenhunt had something to do with that as well.
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Marcus Mariota will surprise some people in year 1. Not so much with his legs, but with his accuracy. In fact, I’m pretty certain UnWisenhunt will somewhat cap his rushing production and compel him to work within the system more than we would hope from a fantasy perspective. If he’s to do that, I think Green-Beckham ends up being the redraft value pick that takes on a somewhat Kelvin Benjamin 2014 impression. The guy could be a head case, and the guy could be the most physically gifted pass catcher in the draft. It’s likely that Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright start out as the target hogs (and there will be plenty of targets in this offense while the Titans play from behind), but it seems feasible that as the season progresses so does the connection between Mariota and DGB.
If you don’t already own Bishop Sankey, you’re likely not going to get him from the owner that drafted him as he’s still emotionally invested in the early draft capital he spent to get him. By him I mean me. But I do think that Sankey is priced well now and will be a good value play, especially in start-ups. He was rated very well at PFF for last year, and it’s not like he ever got a chance to get into a rhythm. I do think it’s rather silly to get excited about David Cobb, unless you were excited about Shonn Greene. If a young redux of Shonn Green gets you excited, then whatever floats your boat, as they say. I wouldn’t have been targeting Cobb in rookie drafts as I’d much rather have the likes of David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Jay Ajayi, etc.