I continue to learn DFS MMA on Draftkings, since it is a fairly new sport in the daily landscape. I always like to go back and look at the winning lineups and make notes.I checked a GPP I played in last week and noticed an interesting result. The winning lineup scored 335 points and went 4-1 (2 Decision, 1 Submission and 1 KO/TKO). 1-1 with under dogs ( Henderson and Miller) 1 win with a slight underdog (Escudero) and 2 wins with 2 Vegas favorites * Skelly and Lee). One other thing I noticed is all of these fighters were relatively low owned and all mid-low price. After seeing this and looking at the fight card for UFC Fight NIght: Bigfoot vs. Mir, I decided to try and take the same approach. However I had to make some alterations because one if the fights was canceled (Oliveira vs. Waldburger) which had a favorite priced very low.
Lets start by looking at the biggest favorites of the fight. Luri Alcantara ($12,100), Rustam Khabilov ($11,700), and Cezar Ferreira ($11,800) round out the “safest” plays of the evening. If you go down just a bit you have William Patolino ($11,600), Antonio Silva ($11,900) and Jessica Andrade ($11,500) are also favorites. Ideally you will want to have 2-3 of these fighter rostered.
Edinson Barbosa ($10,800) and Michael Johnson ($9,100) will be your only real options as mid priced fighter for this card, and they just so happen to be fighting each other. I think both are great values for the price and you almost have to roster at least one of them. I guess you could roster both if you wanted but as I always say, that will likely limit your upside for GPPs, but might be alright for cash games.
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Now lets dig into the underdogs. Because of one of the fights being canceled you almost HAVE to take at least 2 of the dogs based on who you decide to roster. Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,600) is worth a look as he is the the closer to even odds than most of the others around this price range. Sam Alvey ($8,200) and Adriano Martins ($8,200) are also worth a look. With those two you are just hoping for one of two things. Either they can grind out a decision (win or lose) to hopefully rack up some points, or they can get somehow get a stoppage victory from a mistake of their opponents’.