Some would call it contrarian when I squat in the yard and poop, all in the name of potty training my puppy. Leaders lead by example.
A contrarian is a person who takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority, regardless of how unpopular it may be.
A short slate of playoff football games leaves the daily fantasy football player with very limited choices. You have four games to fill your roster, and the majority of other players will field their teams with highly used plays.
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The safe play is smart for head-to-head and 50/50’s for security. However, if you plan on winning any cash in large tournaments, this is a great weekend to put your contrarian hat on. Overlap in teams is not your friend, my friend. Those two or three players that may look bad at first glance, and who most owners passed on, are the guys we want.
Here are some contrarian plays at each position.
All salaries used will be from FanDuel.
Seattle and San Francisco have a nice little rivalry brewing. I fully expect the pregame 50 yard line shit talk fest between the two teams. When it happens, if you listen closely, you can hear me shot gunning a beer in excitement. The general perception of this game is that it will be a knock out drag out defensive battle, which is probably true. However, that means most of the contrarian picks will come from this game.
The two least owned QB’s will be in this NFC Championship.
The media darling, Russell Wilson, is the cheapest quarterback on the board this week at $8200. His production over the last 5 games has averaged 10.88 fantasy points per game, which leaves a lot to be desired. This also includes last week’s abysmal 103 pass yards and no touchdown performance. However, he has fared better than Kaepernick in both meetings this year. Not much better, but… better. Listen, he’s not going to win you money himself, but being the contrarian that you are, you know the two QB’s that will be the most owned reside in the AFC. If I am choosing a guy who could be a nice surprise and offer huge upside in a tournament, who also has a 14:5 TD:INT ratio at home, it’s my boy Russ.
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Kaepernick has been on a tear the last five games averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game. However, when you look down the game log, weeks 2 and 14 show him having miserable games against the Seahawks. Kaep averaged 151 passing yards, 2 interceptions, .5 touchdowns. He’s a turnover machine against Seattle. So while some will see a streaking Kaepernick, I see a guy who gets owned by the Legion of Boom, especially at his $8900 price tag (which is $200 more than Tommy Brady).
The two AFC quarterbacks will be heavily used. No sneaky plays there. Wilson is our snake in the grass.
San Fran has not fared well in their last couple of trips to Seattle, or anyone for that matter. This will scare off most DFS players come roster building time. Let it be known however that Seattle can be run on from time to time. They ended up the 7th best run defense. However, they have surrendered more than 130 total rushing yards in seven contests (just under half their games!). Frank Gore gets a lot of run in the 49er offense. At his $7300 price tag, he is a nice contrarian option as people will steer clear of the Seattle defense.
New England will attempt to control the clock, keeping the ball out of Peyton’s hands, and the NE running backs will benefit. Belichek’s heavy usage of LeGarrette Blount is causing a lot of attention, and therefore shooting his salary to $8200. However, the thought that this game will not be a shootout is hard to fathom, and when the Patriot’s throw, Shane Vereen is in the game. Vereen has a modest price tag at $6000 and has a ton of upside. Vereen is where I am hanging my hat in all tournaments I enter.
Doug Baldwin plays very well against the 49ers and will most likely be covered by Carlos Rogers. Rogers is dealing with a hamstring injury, which is great news for Baldwin owners. He’s a nice cheap play at WR this week. If you are really feeling ballsy, you could roll the dice on the most boom or bust WR on the Seattle roster, Golden Tate. Tate did find room against the 49ers last time they played going for 6 catches and 65 yards.
To say Anquan Boldin will not be heavily owned may not true. However, he does give owners reason for pause due to his volatility and the fact that he was held to one catch for seven yards in the last meeting. However, he shook free for 6-93 in early December against Seattle, and in the last four games Boldin has average 98.75 yards and .5 touchdowns.
The tight end situation sucks. Play Julius Thomas. If you are feeling frisky, and really want to push the contrarian envelope, consider… just kidding, play Thomas.
Recap of my contrarian calls: Russell Wilson, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen, Doug Baldwin, Anquan Boldin
So there they are boys and girls, your contrarian Divisional Championship daily plays. Enjoy the games. Who did I miss? Tell me on Twitter, @EHaleYea.