Early PPR Draft Rankings

John Bush
May 5, 2022

Introduction to my Rankings and Uncertainty Levels

Early PPR Draft Rankings. I present my early PPR-based rankings using my scaled rankings (FSP Rankings) in combination with each player’s price-based uncertainty (PBUNC). I suggest using these materials as a guide for your draft plans.

The sortable table of my PPR rankings is posted below and contains the following:

Position,
Player,
FSP Rankings under either the
HIGH, MEDIUM, and LOW PBUNC

–——————————————————————

FSP Rankings.

At this point in the off-season, my rankings are landscape-level overall rankings of all PPR-based positions. I urge caution and deep thinking for my and all other rankings. So much remains to be determined. However, we are all wanting to begin our redrafts ASAP.

Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game!

I took all players, lined them up top to bottom, and assigned an FSP Ranking value on a scale of 100 (highest) to 0 (lowest). That allows me to visualize value across positions. For example, an RB ranking above 90 is “worth?” a WR ranked above 90. This format of my rankings allows you then to “see” my current thinking to enable modification based on your analysis of other research you might do.

Additionally, I suggest moving players with a significant difference from your opinion vs. my initial thoughts. This process assumes your fantasy diary supports your past successes.

–——————————————————————

Price Based Uncertainty Levels

Risk is not Uncertainty! These concepts are confused by many. Risk implies all sources of variation are understood, such as dice rolling or roulette wheels. Therefore, the odds are known, and your risk is also known. Uncertainty means all sources can not be known or understood, and any decisions will be much harder to make successfully. The most significant problems in systems analysis will be uncertainty-based.

We can not know the true odds of player 2022 success or performance. The best many can do is group decisions/rankings/draft choices by levels of uncertainty (High, Medium, or Low).

We may think of Mahomes as a 2022 QB who is a low uncertainty player, which would be reasonable, but a rookie just drafted would be under medium or high uncertainty in May 2022. Clarity will be better, of course, in Sept 2022!

–——————————————————————

Early PPR Draft Rankings Sortable

–——————————————————————

Position	PLAYER NAME	HIGH Price Based Uncertainity	MEDIUM Price Based Uncertainity	LOW Price Based Uncertainity	FSP Overall Rank
DST	Tampa Bay Buccaneers			64.1	64.1
DST	Buffalo Bills			63.0	63.0
DST	San Francisco 49ers			62.4	62.4
DST	Denver Broncos			59.2	59.2
DST	New Orleans Saints			57.8	57.8
DST	Indianapolis Colts		57.7		57.7
DST	New England Patriots			56.8	56.8
DST	Los Angeles Rams		54.3		54.3
DST	Kansas City Chiefs		52.5		52.5
DST	Miami Dolphins		50.7		50.7
DST	Los Angeles Chargers		50.1		50.1
DST	Cleveland Browns			46.6	46.6
DST	Dallas Cowboys		44.6		44.6
DST	Green Bay Packers			43.4	43.4
DST	Arizona Cardinals			40.5	40.5
DST	Pittsburgh Steelers			39.5	39.5
DST	Chicago Bears		39.4		39.4
DST	Tennessee Titans			38.8	38.8
DST	Baltimore Ravens		37.8		37.8
DST	Philadelphia Eagles			34.9	34.9
DST	Carolina Panthers		34.4		34.4
DST	Minnesota Vikings		30.1		30.1
DST	Cincinnati Bengals			28.9	28.9
DST	Las Vegas Raiders	26.9			26.9
DST	New York Giants		24.9		24.9
DST	Seattle Seahawks	24.6			24.6
DST	Washington Commanders			24.6	24.6
DST	New York Jets			22.9	22.9
DST	Atlanta Falcons			20.4	20.4
DST	Jacksonville Jaguars		19.6		19.6
DST	Detroit Lions			14.5	14.5
DST	Houston Texans			10.6	10.6

K	Justin Tucker			57.0	57.0
K	Tyler Bass			53.2	53.2
K	Younghoe Koo	49.3			49.3
K	Matt Gay		48.8		48.8
K	Ryan Succop		47.8		47.8
K	Greg Zuerlein	45.5			45.5
K	Daniel Carlson			45.2	45.2
K	Jason Sanders			44.6	44.6
K	Matt Prater			44.3	44.3
K	Rodrigo Blankenship			43.0	43.0
K	Robbie Gould			41.0	41.0
K	Harrison Butker		37.2		37.2
K	Brandon McManus			36.6	36.6
K	Nick Folk		36.4		36.4
K	Jake Elliott			35.9	35.9
K	Jason Myers		35.6		35.6
K	Evan McPherson		35.5		35.5
K	Mason Crosby			33.9	33.9
K	Chris Boswell			31.2	31.2
K	Dustin Hopkins			30.1	30.1
K	Wil Lutz			28.5	28.5
K	Graham Gano			26.3	26.3
K	Cairo Santos			25.2	25.2
K	Randy Bullock			24.1	24.1
K	Ka'imi Fairbairn			23.4	23.4
K	Josh Lambo			22.3	22.3
K	Tristan Vizcaino			20.9	20.9
K	Chase McLaughlin			20.2	20.2
K	Quinn Nordin			18.4	18.4
K	Austin Seibert			16.5	16.5
K	Greg Joseph			15.5	15.5

QB	Josh Allen			95.6	95.6
QB	Patrick Mahomes II	88.9			88.9
QB	Justin Herbert		87.1		87.1
QB	Lamar Jackson		86.7		86.7
QB	Kyler Murray		84.2		84.2
QB	Joe Burrow		82.0		82.0
QB	Matthew Stafford		80.1		80.1
QB	Dak Prescott		79.2		79.2
QB	Russell Wilson		77.8		77.8
QB	Tom Brady		77.8		77.8
QB	Deshaun Watson			77.7	77.7
QB	Jalen Hurts		76.6		76.6
QB	Aaron Rodgers		74.6		74.6
QB	Trey Lance		73.6		73.6
QB	Justin Fields			70.5	70.5
QB	Tua Tagovailoa			70.1	70.1
QB	Kirk Cousins		68.5		68.5
QB	Derek Carr	68.3			68.3
QB	Matt Ryan		64.1		64.1
QB	Trevor Lawrence		64.0		64.0
QB	Ryan Tannehill	60.5			60.5
QB	Mac Jones			59.8	59.8
QB	Zach Wilson			59.1	59.1
QB	Jameis Winston			59.0	59.0
QB	Daniel Jones		53.1		53.1
QB	Carson Wentz			52.1	52.1
QB	Jared Goff		47.2		47.2
QB	Davis Mills		44.3		44.3
QB	Marcus Mariota	42.0			42.0
QB	Kenny Pickett	37.3			37.3
QB	Mitchell Trubisky	31.5			31.5
QB	Jimmy Garoppolo	26.8			26.8
QB	Sam Darnold	23.5			23.5
QB	Drew Lock		23.4		23.4
QB	Tyler Huntley			19.7	19.7
QB	Matt Corral		19.5		19.5
QB	Kyle Trask			19.4	19.4
QB	Desmond Ridder	17.9			17.9
QB	Malik Willis			14.5	14.5
QB	Baker Mayfield		14.4		14.4
QB	Taysom Hill		14.4		14.4
QB	Teddy Bridgewater			11.1	11.1
QB	Sam Howell			8.0	8.0
QB	Taylor Heinicke			2.9	2.9
QB	Jacoby Brissett			0.4	0.4

RB	Jonathan Taylor			100.0	100.0
RB	Christian McCaffrey	99.8			99.8
RB	Austin Ekeler		99.5		99.5
RB	Derrick Henry		99.2		99.2
RB	Najee Harris	99.0			99.0
RB	Dalvin Cook		98.8		98.8
RB	Joe Mixon	98.1			98.1
RB	D'Andre Swift		96.8		96.8
RB	Leonard Fournette		95.8		95.8
RB	Javonte Williams	95.2			95.2
RB	Nick Chubb	95.2			95.2
RB	Alvin Kamara			95.0	95.0
RB	Aaron Jones			93.5	93.5
RB	Cam Akers	92.9			92.9
RB	Saquon Barkley		92.5		92.5
RB	James Conner		91.4		91.4
RB	Antonio Gibson		91.1		91.1
RB	David Montgomery		89.9		89.9
RB	Ezekiel Elliott			89.5	89.5
RB	Josh Jacobs	88.8			88.8
RB	J.K. Dobbins		87.4		87.4
RB	Elijah Mitchell			86.5	86.5
RB	AJ Dillon			85.2	85.2
RB	Miles Sanders		84.5		84.5
RB	Breece Hall		84.3		84.3
RB	Damien Harris			83.4	83.4
RB	Chase Edmonds	81.2			81.2
RB	Cordarrelle Patterson		81.0		81.0
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.			80.8	80.8
RB	Kareem Hunt			79.6	79.6
RB	Tony Pollard	78.9			78.9
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire			78.7	78.7
RB	Michael Carter		78.4		78.4
RB	Devin Singletary	76.1			76.1
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson			74.7	74.7
RB	Kenneth Walker III		74.6		74.6
RB	Melvin Gordon III			74.5	74.5
RB	Rashaad Penny			73.8	73.8
RB	James Cook		71.9		71.9
RB	Raheem Mostert			71.5	71.5
RB	Alexander Mattison			71.2	71.2
RB	James Robinson			70.4	70.4
RB	Dameon Pierce			70.3	70.3
RB	J.D. McKissic		69.6		69.6
RB	Ronald Jones II	69.3			69.3
RB	Darrell Henderson Jr.			68.7	68.7
RB	Sony Michel		66.0		66.0
RB	Gus Edwards			65.1	65.1
RB	Nyheim Hines		64.7		64.7
RB	Jamaal Williams		62.6		62.6
RB	James White		62.0		62.0
RB	Myles Gaskin		59.5		59.5
RB	Kenneth Gainwell		57.8		57.8
RB	Chuba Hubbard		57.7		57.7
RB	Chris Carson		57.0		57.0
RB	Darrel Williams	56.1			56.1
RB	Justin Jackson			52.9	52.9
RB	Tyrion Davis-Price		52.3		52.3
RB	Trey Sermon		51.6		51.6
RB	D'Onta Foreman			51.6	51.6
RB	Mike Davis	48.0			48.0
RB	Zack Moss	47.4			47.4
RB	David Johnson	46.2			46.2
RB	D'Ernest Johnson	46.0			46.0
RB	Isaiah Spiller	46.0			46.0
RB	Jerick McKinnon			44.8	44.8
RB	Brian Robinson Jr.	43.9			43.9
RB	Kenyan Drake		43.2		43.2
RB	Boston Scott		43.0		43.0
RB	Marlon Mack		42.6		42.6
RB	Mark Ingram II	42.4			42.4
RB	Tyler Allgeier	41.9			41.9
RB	Rachaad White	41.1			41.1
RB	Khalil Herbert		40.8		40.8
RB	Ty Johnson	40.1			40.1
RB	Keaontay Ingram	40.0			40.0
RB	Damien Williams	36.5			36.5
RB	Phillip Lindsay	34.6			34.6
RB	Samaje Perine	33.8			33.8
RB	Pierre Strong Jr.		32.8		32.8
RB	Zamir White	32.4			32.4
RB	Hassan Haskins			31.7	31.7
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.		31.5		31.5
RB	Salvon Ahmed	30.5			30.5
RB	Darrynton Evans	29.7			29.7
RB	Chris Evans			29.3	29.3
RB	Ke'Shawn Vaughn		29.0		29.0
RB	Devontae Booker	28.5			28.5
RB	Kyren Williams	25.5			25.5
RB	Rex Burkhead		24.3		24.3
RB	Wayne Gallman Jr.	24.3			24.3
RB	Latavius Murray	23.7			23.7
RB	Malcolm Brown	23.6			23.6
RB	Joshua Kelley	22.7			22.7
RB	Anthony McFarland Jr.			21.2	21.2
RB	Jashaun Corbin			21.2	21.2
RB	Tarik Cohen	21.1			21.1
RB	Tyler Badie			20.7	20.7
RB	Jermar Jefferson			19.7	19.7
RB	Ty Chandler			18.7	18.7
RB	Devonta Freeman			18.6	18.6
RB	Matt Breida	17.8			17.8
RB	Jerome Ford	17.5			17.5
RB	Snoop Conner			16.9	16.9
RB	Duke Johnson Jr.		16.1		16.1
RB	Jaret Patterson		14.9		14.9
RB	Abram Smith			14.9	14.9
RB	Le'Veon Bell			14.6	14.6
RB	DeeJay Dallas		13.6		13.6
RB	Giovani Bernard			12.8	12.8
RB	Tevin Coleman			12.7	12.7
RB	Carlos Hyde		11.7		11.7
RB	Jordan Howard		9.2		9.2
RB	Kene Nwangwu			9.2	9.2
RB	Kevin Harris			9.0	9.0
RB	Derrick Gore			8.8	8.8
RB	Eno Benjamin		8.8		8.8
RB	Isaih Pacheco			8.5	8.5
RB	Trestan Ebner			4.7	4.7
RB	Jalen Richard			3.7	3.7
RB	Jeremy McNichols			3.5	3.5
RB	Tyler Goodson			1.4	1.4

TE	Travis Kelce			96.0	96.0
TE	Mark Andrews			95.9	95.9
TE	Kyle Pitts	92.8			92.8
TE	George Kittle	89.4			89.4
TE	Darren Waller			86.4	86.4
TE	T.J. Hockenson			84.4	84.4
TE	Dalton Schultz		82.2		82.2
TE	Dallas Goedert			81.1	81.1
TE	Dawson Knox		75.2		75.2
TE	Rob Gronkowski			74.0	74.0
TE	Pat Freiermuth		74.0		74.0
TE	Mike Gesicki	71.5			71.5
TE	Zach Ertz	71.4			71.4
TE	Cole Kmet		69.2		69.2
TE	Albert Okwuegbunam			68.9	68.9
TE	Noah Fant	68.6			68.6
TE	Hunter Henry			65.9	65.9
TE	Logan Thomas			63.9	63.9
TE	Robert Tonyan		60.6		60.6
TE	Evan Engram		60.4		60.4
TE	Tyler Higbee		60.3		60.3
TE	Gerald Everett			58.8	58.8
TE	David Njoku	57.8			57.8
TE	Austin Hooper			54.9	54.9
TE	Jonnu Smith	45.8			45.8
TE	Hayden Hurst		43.6		43.6
TE	Dan Arnold	41.6			41.6
TE	Ricky Seals-Jones			41.0	41.0
TE	Adam Trautman			38.7	38.7
TE	Jared Cook		38.3		38.3
TE	Brevin Jordan		36.5		36.5
TE	Irv Smith Jr.		36.1		36.1
TE	O.J. Howard		35.5		35.5
TE	Anthony Firkser			31.8	31.8
TE	Cameron Brate	31.2			31.2
TE	Mo Alie-Cox			30.1	30.1
TE	Josiah Deguara	29.5			29.5
TE	Hunter Long			28.8	28.8
TE	C.J. Uzomah		27.4		27.4
TE	Trey McBride	26.5			26.5
TE	Eric Ebron	25.1			25.1
TE	Blake Jarwin	23.9			23.9
TE	Jelani Woods			23.9	23.9
TE	Tommy Tremble		23.0		23.0
TE	Tyler Conklin		23.0		23.0
TE	James O'Shaughnessy			21.7	21.7
TE	Isaiah Likely			21.2	21.2
TE	Kyle Rudolph	21.0			21.0
TE	Greg Dulcich		20.5		20.5
TE	Harrison Bryant			19.7	19.7
TE	Donald Parham Jr.			19.2	19.2
TE	Daniel Bellinger			17.9	17.9
TE	John Bates		16.4		16.4
TE	Chris Herndon IV	16.3			16.3
TE	Foster Moreau		15.8		15.8
TE	Chigoziem Okonkwo			15.4	15.4
TE	Kylen Granson		15.1		15.1
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.7			12.7
TE	Will Dissly			12.6	12.6
TE	Jeremy Ruckert			7.0	7.0
TE	Drew Sample			5.7	5.7
TE	Brycen Hopkins			4.5	4.5
TE	Demetrius Harris			1.9	1.9

WR	Cooper Kupp			99.1	99.1
WR	Justin Jefferson			98.1	98.1
WR	Davante Adams		97.5		97.5
WR	Ja'Marr Chase			97.4	97.4
WR	Stefon Diggs		97.2		97.2
WR	Deebo Samuel	95.8			95.8
WR	Tyreek Hill		95.5		95.5
WR	CeeDee Lamb		95.5		95.5
WR	A.J. Brown		94.4		94.4
WR	Keenan Allen		93.6		93.6
WR	Mike Evans		93.4		93.4
WR	Tee Higgins			92.3	92.3
WR	Jaylen Waddle		92.0		92.0
WR	Diontae Johnson			91.9	91.9
WR	DJ Moore		91.9		91.9
WR	Chris Godwin		90.2		90.2
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.		90.2		90.2
WR	D.K. Metcalf	89.5			89.5
WR	Terry McLaurin			88.6	88.6
WR	Jerry Jeudy	87.6			87.6
WR	Brandin Cooks		86.9		86.9
WR	Amari Cooper		86.6		86.6
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	86.1			86.1
WR	Courtland Sutton	85.8			85.8
WR	Michael Thomas	85.8			85.8
WR	Allen Robinson II	85.6			85.6
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown			85.1	85.1
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	84.4			84.4
WR	Marquise Brown		84.4		84.4
WR	Tyler Lockett	83.9			83.9
WR	Darnell Mooney			82.9	82.9
WR	Elijah Moore			82.8	82.8
WR	DeVonta Smith		82.7		82.7
WR	Hunter Renfrow			82.1	82.1
WR	Rashod Bateman	82.0			82.0
WR	Mike Williams	81.3			81.3
WR	Adam Thielen		80.8		80.8
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	78.9			78.9
WR	Chase Claypool			77.5	77.5
WR	Drake London			76.9	76.9
WR	Gabriel Davis			76.2	76.2
WR	Kadarius Toney	75.1			75.1
WR	Robert Woods	74.8			74.8
WR	Treylon Burks		73.1		73.1
WR	Christian Kirk	72.5			72.5
WR	Michael Gallup	72.5			72.5
WR	Garrett Wilson		71.9		71.9
WR	Jakobi Meyers		71.7		71.7
WR	Russell Gage	69.9			69.9
WR	Allen Lazard	69.0			69.0
WR	Rondale Moore		67.8		67.8
WR	Chris Olave		67.8		67.8
WR	Curtis Samuel	67.8			67.8
WR	Skyy Moore			64.4	64.4
WR	DeVante Parker	64.0			64.0
WR	Tyler Boyd	63.9			63.9
WR	Sterling Shepard		61.2		61.2
WR	William Fuller V	60.3			60.3
WR	Van Jefferson	59.8			59.8
WR	Christian Watson		58.8		58.8
WR	Corey Davis		58.6		58.6
WR	Jarvis Landry	58.5			58.5
WR	Kenny Golladay		58.5		58.5
WR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	58.2			58.2
WR	D.J. Chark Jr.		57.1		57.1
WR	Jahan Dotson			56.5	56.5
WR	Laviska Shenault Jr.		56.1		56.1
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	54.7			54.7
WR	Jameson Williams	54.1			54.1
WR	Tim Patrick	53.3			53.3
WR	Mecole Hardman		52.0		52.0
WR	Jamison Crowder	50.6			50.6
WR	Robby Anderson	49.9			49.9
WR	Julio Jones		49.8		49.8
WR	Nico Collins	49.6			49.6
WR	Terrace Marshall Jr.	46.9			46.9
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.			46.4	46.4
WR	Sammy Watkins		45.3		45.3
WR	Braxton Berrios	45.1			45.1
WR	Donovan Peoples-Jones		44.4		44.4
WR	Joshua Palmer			44.1	44.1
WR	A.J. Green			43.7	43.7
WR	Alec Pierce			43.4	43.4
WR	Olamide Zaccheaus			41.8	41.8
WR	Cole Beasley	41.1			41.1
WR	Randall Cobb	40.4			40.4
WR	David Bell	39.7			39.7
WR	Marquez Callaway		39.2		39.2
WR	Kendrick Bourne			39.0	39.0
WR	Erik Ezukanma			38.5	38.5
WR	George Pickens	37.7			37.7
WR	Nelson Agholor		37.1		37.1
WR	Tre'Quan Smith	36.8			36.8
WR	Parris Campbell		36.7		36.7
WR	Cedrick Wilson Jr.			36.0	36.0
WR	John Metchie III	34.9			34.9
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson		33.1		33.1
WR	K.J. Osborn		33.1		33.1
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	32.9			32.9
WR	Byron Pringle	32.7			32.7
WR	Bryan Edwards		32.1		32.1
WR	Jalen Reagor	31.5			31.5
WR	Jalen Tolbert		31.2		31.2
WR	Josh Reynolds		31.0		31.0
WR	Darius Slayton	29.9			29.9
WR	KJ Hamler		29.2		29.2
WR	Tyler Johnson			28.2	28.2
WR	Tylan Wallace			28.1	28.1
WR	Devin Duvernay	27.9			27.9
WR	Zay Jones	27.8			27.8
WR	Quintez Cephus		27.6		27.6
WR	Danny Gray			26.9	26.9
WR	Dez Fitzpatrick			26.8	26.8
WR	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine			26.0	26.0
WR	Dyami Brown	25.6			25.6
WR	Isaiah McKenzie			25.3	25.3
WR	James Proche II			24.8	24.8
WR	Kyle Philips			24.8	24.8
WR	Tyquan Thornton		24.7		24.7
WR	Romeo Doubs		24.0		24.0
WR	Laquon Treadwell	22.2			22.2
WR	Antonio Brown	22.2			22.2
WR	Quez Watkins		21.1		21.1
WR	Christian Blake			20.5	20.5
WR	Demarcus Robinson	20.4			20.4
WR	Jalen Guyton	19.3			19.3
WR	Jalen Nailor			18.6	18.6
WR	T.Y. Hilton	18.4			18.4
WR	N'Keal Harry			16.6	16.6
WR	Equanimeous St. Brown			16.4	16.4
WR	Trent Sherfield			16.1	16.1
WR	Anthony Miller			15.6	15.6
WR	Miles Boykin		15.4		15.4
WR	Antonio Gandy-Golden			15.1	15.1
WR	D'Wayne Eskridge	14.9			14.9
WR	Calvin Austin III		13.0		13.0
WR	Velus Jones Jr.		12.5		12.5
WR	James Washington			11.4	11.4
WR	Denzel Mims		11.1		11.1
WR	Anthony Schwartz			6.5	6.5
WR	Justyn Ross			6.5	6.5
WR	Khalil Shakir			6.5	6.5
WR	Antoine Wesley			6.0	6.0
WR	Jamal Agnew			5.7	5.7
WR	Deonte Harris			2.2	2.2

–——————————————————————

TEAM Level Landscape Figures

Each Figure represents the current state of the Team and includes:

Team Name
Position
Player Name
High, Medium, and Low Uncertainty Designation of each Player
Current FSP Scaled Rank (100 to 0) across the league.

I suggest using these as uncertainty snapshots to find the predicted depth charts and distance between positional players (1A 1B vs. 1 2). Critical data for current best-ball play, the rookies have found a home. Also, play what-if games such as if player 1 is out, what is the next man up handcuffs.

Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!