Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 10 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 10 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games. 

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KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 10 Games –  2 this week.


Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 10 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 9 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • Find the extremes as use for week 10 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 10.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 10. Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings.

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Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections

I highlight the hot spots with yellow circles. Use these charts to plan week 10 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.

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HIGH Shoot-Out Week 10 Games 

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It seems to suggest ARI-TB an interesting game for DFS plays. Winston-Evans Stacks? or OJ Howard gambles?  NO vs ATL another shootout with Brees-Thomas or Karma stacks? 

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Above Average Scoring Week 10 Games

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Below Average Scoring Week 10 Games

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Low Scoring Week 10 Games

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Team Player Rankings Averages Week 10

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings). The raw averages and scaled averages give a Team Level nice landscape which is useful I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups. 

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week. I highlighted the week 10 high average Teams  (KC/LAR/ATL/GB) vs low teams (ARI/MIA/CIN/CLE). 

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Visual Plot for Week 10 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 10  Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate! 

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 10 Teams 

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 10 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week! 

I annotated for week 10 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • OAK/TEN/BAL/LAC/KC/CAR/DET Etc
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • ATL/LAR/ARI Etc.

The table and graph display the week 10 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

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The Plot of Week 10 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in ATL/LAR/ARI and that implies caution as your plays.

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Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 10 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 10.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 10 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis. 

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

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DST, K, and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and not the averages and green colorization. 

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Bonus- Red Zone (RZ) Metrics for Week 10

The next figure use RZ data from weeks 1 to 9. Questions I am interested in are:

  • What QBs are strong vs weak RZ passers?
  • Who are the key RZ RBs for us to use?
  • Who are the major receivers within the RZ?
  • Find the Hotspots of Activity
  • Predict Scoring and how it will be done by each team. 

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TEAM Ratios of their Rush/Pass Attempts within the RZ

For example, BAL likes to rush into the RZ while the NYJ are the extreme opposite. Ingram advantage vs Bell in rushing. Bell has to catch passess to suceed or NYJ need to change! 

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RZ Fantasy Points Ratios of Team Rushing vs Receiving RZ Based FP

JAX delivers the rushing based FP while GB produces via pass catching. 

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RZ Passer Metrics: Highs vs Lows

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RZ Rushing Metrics: Highs vs Lows

Fournette/Carson/Hyde Buy Low? High activity vs low TDs?

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RZ Receiving Metrics: Highs vs Lows

Tate buy low but new QB so maybe not? Kelce/M Williams/Landry/White/Metcalf Buy Low?

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Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings With Uncertainty

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