Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

By John Bush
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Updated: October 30, 2019

Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 8 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one ranking (AIO). I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty.

Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 9 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays.

KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 9 Games – 4 this week.

Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics

The following tables highlight the Week 9 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 8 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
Find the extremes as use for week 9 lineups or DFS adjustments.

Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in week 9. Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well.

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 9. Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

HIGH Shoot-Out Week 9 Games

SEA VS TB. Nice Shoot-out with powerful offenses. SEA is the solid favorite. They face a tough RB DAP of 0! but easy QB/WR/TEs situation. Passing expected. TB faces a tough WR DAP and maybe will use their TEs more than usual.

DET vs OAK. Two easy defenses. OAK does see a tough TE DAP of 43!

KC vs MIN. KC faces a tough RB and TE DAP! Needs to use WRs. MIN gets easy RB DAP but tough WR/TE DAPS. D Cook all day?

DAL vs NYG. Easy defenses with NYG facing tougher QB and WR DAPs. Barkley Feast with Engram as well!

Above Average Scoring Week 9 Games

Below Average Scoring Week 9 Games

Low Scoring Week 9 Games

BONUS: Playoff Weeks 14 to 16 Positional DAPS for Each Team

We have 8 weeks of defense data and I feel comfortable in “seeing” what each team faces in the KEY weeks of Fantasy Football Playoffs.

Extremes
Collect Key DEFs/K/QBs
Look for KEY RB/TE/WR and well as their handcuffs. Start Building your playoff team now!

BAL- RBs Ingram Strong Playoffs.

CHI/CLE/CAR Nice RBs

JAC OK RBs

MIA/MIN Strong RBs

LAC Nice WRs

NE RBs Nice

NYG/NYJ WRs Strong

PHI sweet Playoffs RBs

PIT nice RBs

Team Player Rankings Averages Week 9

In beginning my weekly rankings I obviously use Vegas Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings). The raw averages and scaled averages give a nice landscape as I think about DFS and seasonal lineups.

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week. I highlighted the week 9 high average Teams (LAC/NYG/MIN/CAR/DET/TB/DAL) vs low teams (WAS/MIA/ARI/CHI/BAL/CLE).

Visual Plot for Week 9 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
*https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays.

Uncertainty Levels for Week 9 Teams

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Mid, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, A and L. The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 8 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!

I annotated for week 9 the teams

Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
CHI/CAR/MIN/LAC/TB Etc
High in uncertainty (red colorization)
BAL/ARI/SF/DEN/TEN/WAS Etc.

The table and graph display the week 9 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

The Plot of Week 9 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal!

Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 9 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 9.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 9 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis.

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

DST K and QBs

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Team Level Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and not the averages and green colorizations.