Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 8 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues.I combined all together rankings which I call my all in one rankings (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 8 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays. 

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KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 8 Games – 6 this week.


Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 8 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 7 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • For example, DEN is tough but is rated 57 for RB DAPs.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • For example, ATL is easy for QB at 100 QB DAP but tough on TEs at 30.7

Find the extremes as use for week 8 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combination Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in week 8.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 8. Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings


HIGH Shoot-Out Week 8 Games 

For example HOU vs OAK. Vegas picks HOU to win by 13 points. Vegas “says” the game is high scoring with plenty of TDs and yardages. The overall defenses are easy for both teams. That implies an offensive based game. Move toward this game. 

DET vs NYG is also a High Shoot-Out Vegas Designated Game. Easy Defenses with DET favored by 13 points. Again a solid game to focus on.

GB vs KC. Two teams with tough defenses. Yet a shoot-out? Vegas assumes the offensive output overrides the tough defenses. Some Caution. 

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Above Average Scoring Week 8 Games

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Below Average Scoring Week 8 Games

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Low Scoring Week 8 Games

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Extreme DAP Hot-Spots Week 8

I wanted to Highlight the Extreme Hot-Spots from the DAP metrics! Below see the tables for RB/QB/WR/TE. SEA HOU TEN PIT should have great QB production. SEA HOU TEN also have a great WR landscape for week 8 as well. NO TEN ATL HOU MIA nice TE DAPs etc (Cook. Hooper etc)

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 8 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

 

Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my AIO rankings would be less accurate! 

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked player with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 8 Teams 

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Mid, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, A and L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 8 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Teams are more uncertain this week! 

I annotated for week 8 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • TEN/JAC/NO/IND/LAR/GB/PHI/SF/SES/WAS/CL/DEN
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • OAK/ARI/CAR/CIN/LAC/KC/MIA/PIT/MIN

The table and graph display the week 8 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams. Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings


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The Plot of Week 8 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! 

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Week 8 Positional Ranking Averages With Plot

Occasionally, in this weekly report, I add extra material. I use these extra materials to refine my thinking. You must be open to holding contradictions in the data metrics (cognitive dissonance). That is a skill that is very tough. FYI, I will be covering cognitive dissonance in my 2020 textbook.  

These metrics are Team Positions. I list the key week 8 positions with their ranking averages. I also included the plot of the teams together. Note, the 50% level is close to league average. You can stroll through and find the extremes. Why? Use for DFS? Watch for changes across the season as well. 

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Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 8 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (green) to Low (red). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an AIO experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for players to see a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 8.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 8 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis. 

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.



DST K and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and not the averages and green colorizations. 

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Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings With Uncertainty

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