The Week 2 slate features 2 teams that are 13+ point favorites (NE, BAL). There are 4 games with totals over 50 points as well. Is this another high scoring week in the NFL? Let’s dig in!
*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.
QB
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens $6,700
I totally whiffed on Jackson in Week 1, but that’s ok. I’m not stubborn and can always take an L. Vegas projects BAL with an expected, whopping 30-point total, second only to NE. I don’t mind the pairing with Andrews who was a reliable target for Jackson in Week 1. After all, Andrews has a top 10 matchup at TE facing off the same team that just made T.J. Hockenson look like Rob Gronkowski, reincarnated. In 2018, ARI was awful against the run.  The Cardinals surrendered the MOST rush attempts, rush yards AND rush TDs to opposing rushers. This seems like a week where Jackson gets it done on the ground. I think he hits pay dirt 2x on the ground. “Not bad for a running back?”
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys $6,300
I’m going right back to the well with Prescott this week. Prescott scorched the Giants with a line of 405/4, while on his way to 36.4 DK points. Offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, seems to have dialed in this offense in the offseason. With Ezekiel Elliott still being eased back into the offense, I expect Prescott to be a top 5 option again this week. Also, Redskins starter, Derrius Guice, has been ruled out for this game. We should expect to see more of ChrisThompson, with Washington playing from behind. I like pairing Prescott with Amari Cooper, who absolutely smoked Washington in their last meeting to the tune of 8/180/2. Former Redskin WR, DeSean Jackson, got behind this same WAS defense twice in Week 1, for 2 TDs.
Chalk QB:
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs $7,500
Also Consider:
Tom Brady – New England Patriots $6,400
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints $6,200
Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers $6,100
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams $5,900
Fade:
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers $6,500
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks $6,200
RB
Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs $5,800
Even with the addition of LeSean McCoy, Williams still had half the marketshare of rushes and was second behind only Travis Kelce, in marketshare of targets in Week 1. Player Profiler’s “Game Script” metric measures how often a players team is in a positive game situation (IE playing with a lead). Williams is the top option, according to this metric. In 2018, Oakland was bottom three in rushing attempts and rushing yards allowed. The Chiefs have a 30-point implied team total and Williams is projected to be only 2% owned.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans $6,000
Henry seems to be picking up where he left off from the 2018 season. It was interesting to see his involvement in the passing game, as he took a pass 75 yards to paydirt. Henry is ranked 2nd in RB DVOA for Week 2. According to Player Profiler’s Volatility metric (measures week-to-week point scoring variance), Henry is the top option. In Week 1 the Colts gave up 3 TDs to Austin Ekeler. In 2018 IND, was bottom two in targets to RB and pass yards allowed to RB. If he sees a little more pass volume he could repeat.
Chalk RB:
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints $8,200
Also Consider:
Chris Thompson – Washington Redskins $3,900
Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills $4,200
Mark Ingram – Baltimore Ravens $6,000 (limited on Wednesday so keep an eye on him)
Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers $6,100
Sony Michel – New England Patriots $6,200
Fade:
Josh Jacobs – Oakland Raiders $4,700 (good cash play for the price but low ceiling for me)
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys $8,700
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants $9,200
WR
Sammy Watkins – Kansas City Chiefs $7,200
With Tyreek Hill out of the picture, Watkins is the new number one receiver in KC. Watkins stood alone atop the DK WR point scoring for Week 1 with a whopping 49.80 points. As of writing this article, his projected ownership is only 10% (which I expect to go up over the course of the next few days). Watkins is 5th in WR DVOA and 6th in Volatilty. Maybe his price increase will cause DFSers to be reticent to roster the oft injured Watkins at $7200, but I’m willing to be overweight on the field on Pat Mahomes’ new number one WR.
Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers $3,000
I always like to include a player who is barely owned, that I will have shares of. Johnson is the 66th overall pick for PIT, who seems to be trapped in a muddled WR corps. Watching Donte Moncrief getting it in the chest repeatedly with balls makes we want to consider James Washington or Johnson as a complete dart throw this week. I like attacking this porous SEA defense that just hosted John Ross’ breakout game.
Chalk WR:
Tyrell Williams – Oakland Raiders $4,400
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints $8,000
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers $7,500
Also Consider:
T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts $6,800
Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys $7,400
Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers $7,600
Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys $5,600
John Brown – Buffalo Bills $5,200
Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos $4,700
Antonio Brown – New England Patriots $7,000
TE
Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans $3,500
The veteran, Walker, came back from injury with a nice 2 TD game in Week 1. PFF has Walker as a top 2 option, according to their TE matchup chart (22% advantage). With so many murky TE options, I like Walker in this spot at $3,500.
Chalk TE:
Darren Waller – Oakland Raiders $3,300
Also Consider:
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens $3,800
George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers $6,800
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs $7,300
DST
Baltimore Ravens $3,800
Kansas City Chiefs $3,500
Houston Texans $2,800
New England Patriots $3,700
I will be discussing a lot of these players on the “Last Call” pod which can be found at www.Fakepigskin.com.
