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NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 16

Welcome to Week 16 of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week, we went 2-1, hitting on our pick of the week (Baltimore) and splitting our two alternate picks (Atlanta/Jacksonville).  As the season winds down, let’s finish on a strong note.  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the talk of the town lately, leading the AFC in victories.  In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks continue to win games, making a strong push towards the playoffs.  All of that didn’t matter when it came to their division foes last weekend.  The Chiefs lost to the surging Chargers, but even more surprising, the Seahawks lost to the lowly 49ers.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
  • Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
  • Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
  • Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
  • Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Last weekend there were four prime time games.  The Thursday night game was decided by one point.  The Saturday night game was decided by one point.  The Sunday night game was decided by seven points.  The Monday night game?  Decided by three points.  Prime time games don’t get any better than this, and that’s why we stay far, far away.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
  • Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Whenever the Steelers play the Patriots, you know it’s going to be a good game.  The difference this past weekend all came down to who was the home team.  Look at what the 49ers did at home against the Seahawks, if you need more proof.  I can’t stress enough how real home field advantage is.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Tennessee Titans over the Washington Redskins

The Titans are in the thick of the playoff race and the Redskins are running out of healthy players to get on the field.  Despite beating a bad Jacksonville team last week I don’t see the Redskins winning two in a row.  Don’t forget, it was only one week prior where the Giants put up 40 points on Washington, yet last week Tennessee held the same Giants’ team to zero.

Other options I like this week:

  • Indianapolis Colts over the New York Giants

Here is another AFC team fighting for that elusive last playoff spot, and they get to play our favorite opponent as of late.  If the Cowboys can’t score against Indy, I’m not sure the Giants are going to have much more luck.

  • Dallas Cowboys over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Finally, the Cowboys are coming off a rough loss last week need to rebound to keep their lead in their division.  Tampa Bay doesn’t seem to be very good this year and the Cowboys are just a better team on paper.

 

Overall record: 35-10

Last week record: 2-1

 

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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