by John Bush
Non_PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 4
Non_PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 4 rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column.
Included are my metric based risk assessment as well as player rankings with stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football.
I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the players within the teams.
See my previous Articles for Week 4
Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities (ceiling to floor). Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile).
What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use this concept to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player’s range of possible outcomes with my rankings.
- High Risk means a large set of possibilities or the distance from player ceiling to floor,
- Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and
- Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See below for a visual description.
Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.
Team Risk Landscape
As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings-based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations.
I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the Week and generate the counts of High, Mid or Low-risk players.
FYI to finish my week’s picture
- I consider Game Scripts, Defenses, Risk, Rankings.
- I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
- Blindly following numbers is not the best way!
Week 4 Team Risk Landscape Table and Graph
The Table/Graph shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories of High and Low. I present a Landscape View of the Tabular Data and finally a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players.
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We see that for the week BAL, CLE, DET, CIN, TEN, SF.EA., TB, PHI and JAX have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This metric can at least get data to fantasy players to pause and think about why the high risk?
- New Players?
- Unproven Players?
- Poor Matchup?
The low-risk teams in week 4 are NO, OAK, PIT, IND, ATL, NE, KC, HOU, LAR, and GB. Again players should consider the reasons for being a low-risk team this week.
I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams. Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week.
Please use the rankings as a best case and modify your DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of Game Scripts, Defense Data, and Risk. Good Luck!
Defense and Special Teams
Non_Points Per Reception (Non_PPR) WRs
TEAM View Non_PPR Positions and Players Rankings and Assessments of Risk
These figures of teams present a Rankings and Risk landscape. Use to focus down at a matchup level. Fringe players may be used in great matchups vs avoided in poorer situations.
I like to see teams with numerous high ranked players at lower risk in DFS. Skim and see those teams. The opposite teams’ with a lot of low high-risk players are DFS fades.
- ATL good
- BUF not so good!
I will be adding My Matchups Analysis later in the week.