I hope everyone had a fun and safe Fourth of July weekend! It’s a nice slate for a Tuesday; unfortunately, MLB DFS Targets won’t include the Reds and Cubs because they’re playing at 2:20 p.m. EST.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE vs. DET)
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Over/Under: 8 1/2
FanDuel: $10,200/DraftKings: $11,500
The Indians lead the AL Central by 6 1/2 games over the Tigers, and they can widen the gap even more tonight. Carrasco was dominant in his complete game shutout a couple of weeks ago and can surely be dominant again in this start. On the season, the Tigers are only walking 7.9% of the time while striking out 22.1%. Carrasco had his first double-digit strike out game of the season in his last start against the Blue Jays and I think we’ll see another strong outing from him.
Jake Odorizzi (TB vs. LAA)
Over/Under: 8 1/2
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FanDuel: $8,300/DraftKings: $6,500
My interest in Odorizzi is lies in his price on DraftKings as a second pitcher after Bumgarner or Carrasco as your number one. You’ll want to take Rays pitchers when they’re at home since Tropicana Field is a pitcher’s park. For his career, Odorizzi’s numbers at home are significantly better than his road numbers by allowing just a .274 OBP, .271 ISO, 1.09 WHIP, and .264 BABIP.
Welington Castillo (ARI vs. SD)
FanDuel: $2,700/DraftKings: $4,600
There is such discrepancy with pricing between FanDuel and DraftKings when it comes to this game. If he’s starting, Castillo could be the highest owned catcher of the night on FanDuel, while he’s probably a GPP play on DraftKings. The platoon matchup in a hitter-friendly park is hard to shy away from. If there’s a time to roster Castillo, it’s when he’s at home against a southpaw. The Padres are starting southpaw, Christian Friedrich. For the season, at home against southpaws, Castillo has a .750 slugging percentage, 1.200 OPS, .361 ISO, .498 wOBA and a wRC+ of 214.
Robinson Chirinos (TEX @ BOS)
FanDuel: $2,200/DraftKings: $2,800
If Castillo is too pricey, look to Chirinos, if he gets the start. He’ll have the platoon at Fenway Park, against David Price. Price hasn’t been sharp this season and he’s now having to face the team with the most wins in the AL. The Rangers are finding ways to score runs and win games. Even though Chirinos has missed most of the season up until this point, he’s still capable of having big fantasy games, as you can see in his game logs.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI vs. SD)
FanDuel: $4,100/DraftKings: $5,400
I like Goldschmidt for the same reasons given with catcher, Castillo. He’s close to being the most expensive on both sites, but Goldschmidt has a really good chance at exceeding his value, especially with a game total of 9 1/2 runs.
Chris Carter (MIL vs. WAS)
FanDuel: $2,900/DraftKings: $3,800
Carter and the Brewers are going up against the Nationals’, Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has regressed back to the pitcher we’re used to seeing in his last few starts. Carter is amongst some of the Brewers’ bats who can certainly take advantage of Gonzalez’s decline. In his career against left-handed pitchers, Carter has a .556 slugging percentage, .889 OPS, .349 ISO, and .368 wOBA.
Jason Kipnis (CLE vs. DET)
FanDuel: $3,000/DraftKings: $5,100
Kipnis’ price on DraftKings is hard to manage and is more favorable on FanDuel. The Indians are facing Anibal Sanchez, who has been pitching out of the bullpen. Because Sanchez hasn’t been making starts consistently, the Indians might be a popular stack tonight.
Devon Travis (TOR vs. KC)
FanDuel: $2,700/DraftKings: $4,100
Travis usually bats second or eighth in the batting order. The Blue Jays are facing Chris Young tonight, and any Jays’ hitters can be considered, even while batting lower in the order. Travis has reverse splits, and for his career against right-handed pitchers, he has a .494 slugging percentage, .852 OPS, .197 ISO, and .366 wOBA. This game has the highest game total of 9 1/2 and is being played at Rogers Centre, which makes him a really good target.
Alex Rodriguez (NYY @ CWS)
FanDuel: $3,300/DraftKings: $3,500 (first base eligible)
Even with the eligibility at first base on DraftKings, you’re not using A-Rod there. The Yankees will be hitting at U.S. Cellular Field against southpaw, Carlos Rodon. With the platoon at a hitter’s park, Rodriguez has a very strong number at this park for his career, with a .500 slugging percentage, .869 OPS, and 15 home runs.
Adrian Beltre (TEX @ BOS)
FanDuel: $2,600/DraftKings: $4,200
I really like Beltre tonight because of his price on FanDuel, and should be a good source of salary relief. In his career against Price, Beltre has had 35 plate appearances, an OBP of .314, .600 slugging percentage, and .914 OPS.
Corey Seager (LAD vs. BAL)
FanDuel: $4,000/DraftKings: $4,800
Seager is on another hot streak and tonight, he and the Dodgers face off against Chris Tillman. Tillman is having a really good season, but it’s hard to stop a hitter when they are in a groove. Starting June 1st, Seager has an OBP of .414, .655 slugging percentage, .303 ISO, .400 BABIP, and .442 wOBA.
Marcus Semien (OAK @ MIN)
FanDuel: $2,800/DraftKings: $4,700
Semien is a good alternative if you can’t afford Seager. He should bat higher in the order with the platoon. This is another game with a run total of 9 1/2, where the A’s batters could be a popular stack against Twins pitcher, Tommy Milone.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA @ NYM)
FanDuel: $3,000/DraftKings: $4,300
Stanton is slowly getting back to form, but what you’re really looking for is his power when rostering him. Opposing pitcher, Steven Matz, on the other hand, is pitching with a bone spur. Matz hasn’t had a win since May, and didn’t pitch out of the seventh inning in June. Stanton could take advantage of this and we may could see this turn into a bullpen game as well.
Bryce Harper (WAS vs. MIL)
FanDuel: $3,800/DraftKings: $4,900
Harper’s offense had fallen off a bit, but he’s put together four multi-hit games in the last seven games. The match up tonight against Zach Davies, is a good one for Harper, as he’ll have the platoon along with a decline in performance from Davies’ last couple of starts.
Ryan Rua (TEX @ BOS)
FanDuel: $2,600/DraftKings: $3,900 (first base eligible)
For salary relief on FanDuel, Rua is nice target. Rua can be used in a stack on DraftKings, but is probably more than you want to spend for a one-off. He should bat in the middle of the order with the platoon, which is what you want with Rua because his numbers are much stronger against left-handed pitchers.
Results from 7/1 targets:
Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!