It happens every year. A rookie will impress during preseason or an injury occurs to positively affect and the average draft position of a player is wildly affected. While in some scenarios a move is very much warranted, the amount it changes is often too wild of a swing. Typically going past where the ADP should settle and going up and extra round or two. Three players stood out as situations where the ADP has gone too far.
Davante Adams is guy that i have shied away from the entire preseason. For me the price others have been willing to pay has made him a guy i would like to avoid. For me the potential output wasn’t worth the price I had to pay. With Jordy Nelson going down for the season Adams has seen his ADP skyrocket. I get it, he is going to presumably fill the role of Nelson for the Packers and will be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. While that sounds good in theory I’m not sure how true that is. He has average size for a wide receiver and while he is athletic it doesn’t typically show on the field. Adams catch rate is too low for a guy who runs short to intermediate routes.
His ADP prior to the Nelson injury is the area where I would potentially target Adams now. However he is now going in the top of the 5th round on average and you’d likely have to take him in the 3rd or 4th round to make sure you got him. That is way over drafting. Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Desean Jackson, and Allen Robinson are all wide receivers I’d rather select.
If you want pieces of the Packers wide receiving core without having to pay such a high price tag look at Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery. It was Janis who came into the game when Nelson went out. Janis is a guy who has the size/speed combination that made Nelson so important for this offense. Montgomery is my pick if I’m only getting one guy. He has the ability to line up in multiple spots, can take the top off the defense and was the guy taking reps with the first team after the Nelson injury.
If you are looking for a different player to draft look no further than Markus Wheaton. Last year Wheat had 86 targets, catching 53 (61.6%) of them for 644 yards and 2 touchdowns. Where Adams caught 38 of his 66 targets (57.6%) for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even with the inflated ADP due to the suspension of Martavis Bryant, you will get a better player with a 4-6 round price savings.
Devin Funchess, like Adams has seen his ADP skyrocket after the number one receiver on the team went down. Funchess is a little easier pill to swallow in terms of what you will have to pay in order to own him. His ADP is currently the top of the 9th round. For me he has the ability to step in and do much of what made Kelvin Benjamin valuable in Carolina.
However there is potential for Funchess to not work out. He has been battling a hamstring injury but returned to practice on Tuesday. He has to prove to both Panthers coaches and Cam Newton that he can shoulder a workload that will make him a useful fantasy option. There were times at Michigan that he had less that optimal effort. He also lacked the mentality to attack the ball in the air. He was playing with questionable at best quarterbacks which could have help with this issue.
If I can get Funchess in double-digit rounds im happy to do so and the 9th is even in play depending on what’s left and how I feel about my roster. Any earlier than that feels like a reach and means passing on talent.
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Don’t let this be a knock on Ameer Abdullah. He is an incredibly talented running back that I liked very much in the predraft process. My podcast co-host Dennis Dunbar has been on him since the draft and I have been right with him. Abdullah makes moves in space that makes people take notice. He will have value this season and the potential is there for it to be high. Worst case scenario he gets a portion of the workload and see a ton of work on third down. I would be fine taking a shot on him in 5th or 6th round, which means im not likely to get him in most leagues.
With that being said Joique Bell is still there and is being severely overlooked. Last season he finished with 860 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. He also added 34 catches for 322 yards and a score. Over the final 5 games he rushed for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is going to be the feature back when healthy.
Lions head coach Jim Caldwell said of Bell recently “He’s young, he’s strong, he’s one of those guys that has always been a workhorse, and we fully expect him to come back and be what he was last year for us, and that was a bell cow.”
I’m willing to take Bell around in the 5th or 6th round. He is currently going after names like T.J. Yeldon, Alfred Blue, and Gio Bernard. I prefer Bell in all of those cases.