It really is amazing how reactionary the fantasy football community is a whole. While often times its warranted to make adjustments to rankings or value after an injury, how much it moves is often over done. It can swing too far the other way and make players that were priced about right into great values. Three players are seeing or will be seeing dramatic shifts in their ADP to the advantage of those yet to draft. For those that have already drafted, this is an optimal time to buy low on a player whose value is seemingly diminished.
The injury of Kelvin Benjamin was an impactful one. It sent Devin Funchess’ ADP on a rapid rise. He was a guy going after the 12th round in many drafts to the top of the 9th. His ADP continues to climb as he fits much of what made Benjamin such an interesting fantasy option. Yet for some strange reason Cam Newtons ADP is taking a massive downtick.
This trend makes zero sense for multiple reasons. If most feel Funchess can do a good enough job that they will bump him up their draft boards 3 or 4 rounds, then Cam should stay about where he was or slightly drop. Adjusting him a few spots in overall or in his current tier among quarterbacks. Instead he has dropped from the top of the 7th round to after the 10th round based upon one injury.
This also doesn’t account for Newtons history. He has been a top 5 fantasy quarterback in every season he has played except for last year. That season was spent nursing lower body injuries last year that limited his mobility. Those injuries also hurt his ability to plant and drive on his throws. While i’m not saying reach to make sure you get him, but do target in the middle rounds of your draft. He has top 5 upside as guy going off the board as quarterback 15.
Word surfaced today that at least as of now Martavis Bryant will be suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season. While this is bad news in the short-term, it actually gives owners the opportunity to gain value. The 5th or 6th round was where Bryant was coming off the board in most drafts. While I was fine with taking him there, this news should help his ADP drop by at least a couple of rounds. The seventh or eighth round sounds about right.
For those who worry about Bryant missing time, he missed the first 6 weeks last year and was still able to put up 550 yards and 8 touchdowns over the final 10 weeks. Bryant will have the ability to come back and produce. He was going to be a big part of this offense before the suspension was given out. It also brings a ton of clarity to the quotes from Ben Roethlisberger and others about Markus Wheaton.
Tevin Coleman is an interesting case. His ADP has seemingly dropped for no reason. Both Coleman and Devonta Freeman, the other potential starter in Atlanta have yet to hit the field. Some may believe because Freeman is the incumbent that he will get the carries. With Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan taking over this year there is no commitment to either guy. If anything Coleman is the guy they would want to make work after drafting him.
With both guys seemingly having equal footing, you have, you have to take the talent. Coleman has the explosive ability to do more with less touches. Best case scenario Coleman grabs the feature role and flourishes in the Shanahan offense. Worst case scenario this backfield has a similar feel to the old Lions backfield with Coleman filling the Joique Bell role and Freeman playing the Reggie Bush role.