MLB Reviews/Previews: Outfield Rankings

Given that there are 96 outfielders minimum starting across the major leagues in a season it is no surprise that it the hitting position which provides most of the action in the offseason. This year the major trades had San Diego acquiring a full outfield group in Wil Myers, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp and Boston shipping Cespedes to Detroit. In terms of free agency Nelson Cruz moved to Seattle, Melky Cabrera signed for the White Sox, Colby Rasmus moved chilly Toronto to roasting hot Houston and finally Arizona signed international free agent Yasmany Tomas. Those eight names are just a few of the moves that happened this offseason and while some of the moves this offseason bear no effect on fantasy values some have a massive effect. Perhaps the biggest questions is how will the moves of Upton, Kemp and Cruz to pitcher friendly parks affect their ability to hit the long ball and how does this worry affect their rankings?

But first let’s take a look back on 2014;

2014 Outfield Top Tens (Only my personal rankings and CBS sports points totals will be used in this article due to ESPN being down for maintenance preventing the comparison with their player rater.)

Roto		Points Leagues
Player	Points	Player	Points
Mike Trout	27	Mike Trout	595
Jose Bautista	25	Michael Brantley	577
Giancarlo Stanton	25	Jose Bautista	569
Michael Brantley	24	Andrew McCutchen	538
Carlos Gomez	23	Giancarlo Stanton	530
Andrew McCutchen	22	Nelson Cruz	510
Charlie Blackmon	22	Carlos Gomez	493
Adam Jones	21	Hunter Pence	479
Nelson Cruz	20	Matt Holliday	474
Four Players*	19	Adam Jones	463

*Corey Dickerson, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence, Justin Upton

I’ll go ahead and get it out of the way right now; Mike Trout is just awesome and is the number one overall pick in any format. So now that is dealt with let’s move onto the rest of the top 10’s from 2014.

Stanton came roaring back from a down year in 2013 putting up superb numbers. The end of 2014 was derailed by him taking a pitch straight to the face and that probably prevented him finishing higher than 3^rd and 5^th last year. Another well-known name who put up much improved stats in 2014 is Jose Bautista and this is partly due to the fact he was able to manage an extra 100 AB’s in 2014 than 2013. If he can continue to stay healthy then don’t be surprised to see him in the top 10 again in 2015.

Looking at those top 10’s the main names that stand out are Nelson Cruz and Michael Brantley. Cruz’s ADP in 2014 was heavily damaged by the fact he was signed late by the Baltimore Orioles. That signing turned out to be perfect for fantasy owners who swooped on him as he ended up in a hitter friendly park and boy did he make the most of it. However, a top ten season from him wasn’t a complete shock like it was from Michael Brantley who came from nowhere to put up a 20/20 season whilst hitting at nearly 0.330.

Gomez, McCutchen and Jones are no surprise to be present in the top 10 of both formats. Another shock was Charlie Blackmon’s presence in the top 10 for roto due to him being immensely close to putting up a 20/20 season (19 home runs).

Now let’s take a look at who finished top 10 at outfield in each roto category.

 

Runs		Home Runs		RBI		Steals		Average
Trout	115	Cruz	40	Trout	111	Hamilton	56	Brantley	0.327
Pence	106	Stanton	37	Cruz	108	Revere	49	Santana	0.319
Bautista	101	Carter	37	Stanton	105	Ellsbury	39	Harrison	0.315
Gomez	95	Trout	36	Bautista	103	R.Davis	36	Martinez	0.315
Brantley	94	Bautista	35	Upton	102	Dyson	36	Dickerson	0.314
Span	94	Duda	30	Cespedes	100	Gomez	34	Revere	0.312
Yelich	94	Jones	29	Brantley	97	Martin	31	Jay	0.306
Puig	92	Upton	29	Jones	96	Span	31	Span	0.303
Calhoun	90	**	25	Duda	92	***	30	Pollock	0.302
*	89			Holliday	90			D.Young	0.302

 

*McCutchen, Stanton, Cespedes all tied for 10^th

**McCutchen, Kemp, Byrd, Moss all tied for 9^th

***Marte, E.Young, Schafer all tied for 9^th

• Two of the 30+ home run hitters worry me going into 2015, Chris Carter is as unreliable as they come and is only eligible at DH to begin the 2015 season. Nelson Cruz’s move from hitter friendly Baltimore to pitcher friendly Seattle could see him struggle with power similar to how Robinson Cano did last season. (Cano’s home runs halved in 2014 compared to 2013!)
• If Hamilton and Revere play a full season in their respective outfields then they should once again be top 2 in steals. Ellsbury’s age means I wouldn’t be stunned if he was nearer 30 steals in 2015 than 40
• Rajai Davis and Jarrod Dyson may struggle to see full playing time but they are worth a late flyer in deep leagues because when they are playing they should put up steals at a great rate.
• Pence, Span and Puig should be locks to put up 90+ runs given their speed and where they bat in their line ups. Yelich and Calhoun could see themselves moved around a little and there runs numbers may suffer but that should be replaced with other category production
• If Corey Dickerson can get close to a 0.300 average with full time at bats then he has top 5 potential playing in hitter friendly Colorado.

My Early Outfield Rankings:

1. Mike Trout, LAA
2. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
3. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
4. Jose Bautista, TOR
5. Carlos Gomez, MIL
6. Adam Jones, BAL
7. Yasiel Puig, LAD
8. Michael Brantley, CLE
9. Bryce Harper, WAS
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY
11. George Springer, HOU
12. Matt Kemp, SD
13. Corey Dickerson, COL
14. Ryan Braun, MIL
15. Justin Upton, SD
16. Hunter Pence, SF
17. Nelson Cruz, SEA
18. Matt Holliday, STL
19. D. Martinez, DET
20. Starling Marte, PIT
21. Billy Hamilton, CIN
22. Alex Gordon, KC
23. Melky Cabrera, CWS
24. Carlos Gonzalez, COL
25. Ryan Zimmerman, WSH
26. Jay Bruce, CIN
27. Christian Yelich, MIA
28. Josh Harrison, PIT
29. Yoenis Cespedes, DET
30. Jason Heyward, STL
31. Jayson Werth, WSH
32. Mookie Betts, BOS
33. Charlie Blackmon, COL
34. Jorge Soler, CHC
35. Wil Myers, SD
36. Rusney Castillo, BOS
37. Marcel Ozuna, MIA
38. Gregory Polanco, PIT
39. Yasmany Tomas, ARI
40. Mark Trumbo, ARI
41. Kole Calhoun, LAA
42. Michael Cuddyer, NYM
43. Danny Santana, MIN
44. Ben Revere, PHI
45. Denard Span, WAS
46. Brandon Moss, CLE
47. Steve Pearce, BAL
48. Joc Pederson, LAD
49. Ben Zobrist, OAK
50. J. Pollock, ARI
51. Shin-Soo Choo, TEX
52. Brett Gardner, NYY
53. Leonys Martin, TEX
54. Steven Souza, TB
55. Curtis Granderson, NYM
56. Avisail Garcia, CWS
57. Marlon Byrd, CIN
58. Torii Hunter, MIN
59. Michael Morse, MIA
60. Khris Davis, MIL
61. Adam Eaton, CWS
62. Oswaldo Arcia, MIN
63. Alex Rios, KC
64. Carlos Beltran, NYY
65. Carl Crawford, LAD
66. Josh Reddick, OAK
67. Josh Hamilton, LAA
68. Austin Jackson, SEA
69. Angel Pagan, SF
70. Lorenzo Cain, KC
71. Coco Crisp, OAK
72. Desmond Jennings, TB
73. Arismendy Alcantara, CHC
74. Domonic Brown, PHI
75. Nick Markakis. ATL