Welcome back hoops fans to the beginning of yet another week. Monday is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to weekly fantasy basketball, but it means everything (like any other night) for daily.
The theme of the day is “lets not over-think things.” We’re far enough into the season that we can determine trends. By now, we know who are the bad defensive teams and who the good ones are. Identifying the breakout candidates is no longer necessary, because those who were going to break out are already doing so in front of our eyes.
So without thinking too hard in setting our lineups, let us examine how we’ll be approaching our daily lineup for 11/25. So without further ado, here are the guys I will have in my lineup tonight and ones I will be throwing out from my list of possibilities. All prices are based on my favorite daily site (Draftkings).
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Players I Love:
Dirk Nowitzki – $7,600 – I like the second end of home and homes (when two teams play each other at one team’s home court and then play the following game against the same team at the other team’s home court) because we have data right in front of us. Denver, as I always say, struggles to cover big guys. Monta Ellis had a big game against Denver the last game, but shot 57.1% His career 45.7% shooting says that game was a bit of a mirage. Can’t sustain 57.1% shooting. On the other hand, Dirk put up 41.8 fantasy points against Denver on just 40.9% shooting. With another game against Denver, he could easily shoot that percentage (or better). I’d rather take my chances on Dirk repeating reasonable numbers than Monta (who has admittedly had a monster season so far) repeating shooting over his head.
Goran Dragic – $7,100 – Eric Bledsoe seems questionable at best for tonight’s game. Mario Chalmers, who would be defending Dragic, is a game-time decision. Mind you Norris Cole is a great defender in his own right, but Dragic is just playing out of his mind right now. If Bledsoe is indeed inactive, I can’t see sitting Phoenix’s spark plug. Since Bledsoe went down, Dragic’s line reads: 19.5 PPG, 8.5 AST, 1.0 STL, 1.3 3PM on 49.1% shooting. Yeah, I can’t sit/avoid him regardless of the Norris Cole factor.
Luol Deng – $6,600 – With Derrick Rose out for the season, Luol Deng immediately becomes the team’s #1 scoring option. Whether we believe he’s capable or not of actually being a #1 scoring option on a winning team is irrelevant because this is fantasy land. In his second full game in that role, the Bulls square off against the lowly Jazz in Utah. Deng put up 22 and 6 rebounds last game knowing he had to be the man. Utah allows opponents to shoot 47.9% For $6,600, this is a no-brainer.
Honorable Mentions: Andre Drummond, Zach Randolph, Terrence Jones
Players I Won’t Use:
Kevin Love – $10,600 – Love is averaging the most fantasy points per game of any player. He also is by far the #1 PF in the game and in the MVP conversation…….so why are we avoiding? Usually I don’t mind paying the hefty price tag but he gets Indiana tonight on the road. Indiana allows the least points per game (87.6) and lowest FG% (39.7) to opponents of any team in the NBA. Minnesota likes to get into shootouts but this one will not be one of those games. If Minnesota is going to pull this one out, it’s going to be a grind, and I doubt many players will end with gaudy lines. I mean, he’s Kevin Love, so he will probably finish with a double-double but not the 25-13 type line you need to spend the money on him.
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O.J. Mayo – $6,000 – Maybe the coldest player in the NBA, Mayo has not scored in double figures in 3 straight contests. Larry Drew continues to tinker with his rotation and it has resulted in 25 minutes or less in 2/3 games for Mayo. Long-term, Mayo has to be a focal point of Milwaukee’s offense for them to compete, so I’m not worried from a yearly league perspective. However, this is daily, and you just can’t start a player averaging 7.3 PPG in the last 7 days and just 20 fantasy points per game in the last 10 days for $6,000. Find better values elsewhere.
Enes Kanter – $5,600 – In fairness, it looks like Kanter won’t play because of a sprained ankle. Whether or not he’s hurt is irrelevant because I wouldn’t be playing him anyways. Kanter has fallen into a funk. He has shot under 42% in 4 of his last 6 games. Coach Tyrone Corbin benched him due to his lack of defense which has him playing without confidence. Essentially, I was avoiding him either way, the ankle injury is just the icing on the cake.
For more fantasy basketball information/insight, follow me on Twitter @RSandersFR. I am always willing to answer your questions.