Projection for 2013: 1030 yards, 6 TDs.
From Asher Curzon(@realABC);
I’ll just preface this head to head by saying I am a Miami fan (yes I know feel free to snicker), and that when I was approached about writing a bit on a NYJ RB
Chris Ivory I was reluctant to say the least. Yet if I want to write about
fantasy football, I am going to have to put aside bias and differences and look
at the data to determine my opinion. So with that said, here goes…
New Orleans traded Ivory to the Jets for picks during the NFL draft, and he became
the undisputed RB1 for the Jets once Mike Goodson ran into a little legal
trouble a few weeks ago. Subsequently this has caused an already excited
fantasy world to burst into a crazed feeding frenzy around the newest Jet. His
ADP as of today is 72, meaning that in a 12 team league you
can secure him on your team with the first pick of the sixth round. That is
incredible value for a RB of Ivory’s potential, in an offensive system that
ranked 17th overall last year in run blocking and has notoriously
been a run first team both in early downs and the goal line under head coach Rex
Ryan.
Since we are talking about New York City, I’ll paraphrase a famous NYC rapper… 50 cent. “I love Chris Ivory’s upside like a fat kid loves cake!” Funny I know but after looking at this guys college stats, combine and pro day numbers, coupled with the highlight runs he has flashed as a Saint since 2010, you have to come away loving Ivory. What’s not to love right? He is big, fast, hits holes incredibly hard, and runs with that nasty streak a la Beast mode (Marshawn Lynch), that we all enjoy in our drafted RB’s. As of right now he is on the clock at the start of the sixth round in twelve team leagues… I mean that’s just amazing. This is a guy with top 10 potential… except for one caveat… Chris Ivory can’t seem to shake the injury bug.
There I said it. Injury is the elephant in the room with Ivory; and it’s a substantially large and ugly elephant. No one wants to address it, but it should be in the back of our minds come draft day. To elaborate, here is his injury history from his time in the NFL alone. Look for yourself, it’s impressive. Ivory’s propensity for getting dinged up additionally dates back to his days at WSU and Tiffin University. He has shown an uncanny inability to carry a full load at any level for an entire season and to be honest this concerns me as a potential owner.
As the hype around Ivory continues to grow this off season, I fully expect his ADP to sky rocket. I think we are looking at a guy that will be drafted around the likes of David Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Darren McFadden to name a few. While a healthy Ivory can produce on par with those players, you will not find me among those drafting him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of any draft. If you can get him today at his current ADP I believe you are stealing him. I just refuse to buy into the hype that you can count on him for your entire 2013 season. If you draft him I encourage you to do so with caution, and to surround your team with serviceable depth. Since I see him finishing the year on the IR here is my premonition as to how his 2013 season stats look.
Projection for 2013: 750 yards rushing and 5 TDs in 10 games played.
