Couldn’t wait until Saturday for the CFB DFS kickoff either? Perfect! I decided to dip my toe a bit for Thursday’s six game slate in preparation for losing my mind on Saturday.
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 6 games included in the Thursday night DK contest:
|[email protected]CLEM 08:00PM ET|||||36|||||60|
|[email protected]ASU 10:00PM ET|||||25|||||60|
|[email protected]TA&M 08:30PM ET|||||33.5|||||56.5|
|[email protected]CINCY 07:00PM ET|||||2.5|||||59|
|UTAH@BYU 10:15PM ET|||||5.5|||||47|
|[email protected]TUL 08:00PM ET|||||2|||||57|
For example, this Thursday, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Trevor Lawrence and Eno Benjamin. What I will do is point out that rostering the potent duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,367.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, let’s stop wasting time. Without further ado, CFB DFS is FUCKING BACK!!!
Jacob Kibodi | RB | Texas A&M $5,100
Always a critical key to CFB DFS is correctly speculating who will benefit from the game flow of early-season JV/Varsity match-ups like this one. With an injury to Vernon Jackson, the backup running back situation for the Aggies just got a bit less murky.
As a 33.5 point favorite, 15 touches for someone in Kibodi’s position is not unreasonable. Clemson’s Lyn-J Dixon is the other top candidate for game flow hero of Thursday night’s slate.
Going deeper for dart throw purposes, guys like Chez Mellusi, Michel Dukes, and A&M’s other backup Deneric Prince (impressed in spring game) should also be considered. One late game goal line carry would be enough to justify them as selections.
Beyond CFB DFS implications, I’ve done some reading up on the current condition of the Texas St. Bobcat football program. And, let’s just say I’ll be safely laying the 33.5 in what wreaks of a 61-dick slaughter in College Station Thursday night.
Tyler Davis | TE | Georgia Tech $3,300
That lopsided game flow works both ways too. And, I think it could work wonders for this legit NFL tight end prospect.
New head coach Geoff Collins has ditched the archaic wishbone option offense for a spread passing attack. To help, he secured the graduate transfer of Uconn’s stand out tight end.
His numbers at Uconn don’t jump off the page. And, Clemson’s athlete’s aren’t Tulsa’s. But, this isn’t the one dimensional G-Tech of old. They’re going to throw the ball when they get behind. And, every indication points to Davis having a major role on offense immediately.
Thursday night, they’ll be down early and often, and quarterback Lucas Johnson will be looking to simply figure out who he can rely on as a security blanket. Davis and receiver Jalen Camp have the best opportunity to fill that role first, and are cheap enough dates to warrant the investment.
Devin Asiasi | TE | UCLA $4,600
Sticking with the sneaky tight end theme, someone has to replace the nation’s top receiving one from 2018, Arizona Cardinal’s draft pick, Caleb Wilson. My money is on this U of M transfer to do the job.
After sitting out all of 2017 due to transfer rules, Asiasi played as primary backup to UCLA’s top pass catcher. Late in the season, in a limited role, he emerged as a big play weapon amassing a 6-130-1 line in the Bruins final four games. If you’re doing the math at home, that’s over 20 yards per grab for the mammoth 6’3″ 279 lb junior.
Vegas projects their game at Cincy to be close, with both teams approaching 30 points. In other words, DFS cat nip. Along with this preseason John Mackey Award watch list candidate, Bearcats tight end Josiah Deguara have some of the best floor/ceiling/price combos of the slate. Cincy receivers Jayshon Jackson and Thomas Geddis present solid value plays here as well.
Finally, the best attribute that puts Asiasi over the top is that he left the Michigan football program. That kind of decision making ability illustrates that he’s a true winner as a football player, and a person.
Kent State Offense
Speaking of value, the Golden Flashes’ offense could be a place to procure tons on Thursday night. Dual threat quarterback Woody Barrett leads the second season of a new offensive scheme that is extremely up tempo and spreads the ball around.
With him, returns four starters on the offensive line, and every significant skill player from last year. And, more importantly, an identity formed on the offense.
Entering year two under head coach Sean Lewis’s system, Barrett and the offense know who they are, and what they want to do. Which, is keeping defenses off balance by going as fast as they can. Not exactly a great recipe for an ASU defensive front that lacks experience and depth.
Even for athletically superior and experienced defenses, that style is annoying as fuck to play and prepare for. Especially, in the first game out of the gate. Add in a true freshman starting at quarterback for the Sun Devils and, yes, I’ve absolutely talked myself into taking the 25 points!
Regardless of my gambling problem, DK does not have a Golden Flash priced above $4,900. Beyond Barrett, running back Jo-el Shaw emerged as a true work horse down the stretch last season. The leading receivers from last year, Mike Carrigan and Antwan Dixon should benefit from a full off-season with Barrett as well. Their guaranteed volume alone has them worthy of consideration.
And, shifty track star Kavious Price should see an increased role in the slot for his senior season. Major dart throw alert there.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
To spurge, or not to splurge. That is the question every CFB DFSer is faced with each week at the quarterback position. Especially, when given the option of playing two in the same lineup.
Each slate is different, and presents it’s own set of angles to attack from. For this one, the game flow concerns make Trevor Lawrence and Kellen Mond a soft pass for me.
Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder provides a similar floor/upside combination at a much more reasonable price, with very positive game script projections. Going a bit further, same goes for both starters in the FIU/Tulane game in terms of the floor and script.
Then, of course, you can climb aboard the Barrett Express. I’ll be serving as Chief Conductor 10:00 p.m. EST Thursday night.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
I feel I am personally responsible for Joshua Kelley’s emergence last season when he was just a mere $4,500 glint in my DFS eye. Now, the clear feature back for the Bruins, Kelley is poised for what should be a huge senior season.
His counterpart is that same game, Michael Warren II has the benefit of having the same role on offense for the Bearcats. Both have the guaranteed volume, passing game involvement, and positive game scripts to be my favorites among the big boys.
Good luck for the Opening Night slate! Next post will be for the Saturday 10 game day slate. Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.