Five weeks of the 2014 NFL season have come and gone, and there are plenty of teams looking over rosters and determining if they’re about to make moves for now or for later. Here are some dynasty movers and shakers including Brian Quick, DeAndre Hopkins, and more to help you determine what your next move is.
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Remember when you were only able to get a Third Round Rookie pick for Philip Rivers a couple years back? No one talks about the sternum injury he played through that year, and everyone is surprised that Rivers has “found” his old self again. Coaching has helped his cause, but he’s still the same player scoring one of the league best .59 fantasy points per Drop Back. Rivers is a picture of perfection this year.
You don’t want to watch the games while you root for Jay Cutler to score points for your team as he’s good for a few bone-head plays a game. Many fantasy owners have a hard time distinguishing the difference between real and fake football. In fake football, those interceptions prevent points, stall drives, etc. But when your quarterback is dropping back a fifth best 42 times per game, the interceptions are more a signal of high volume, and that’s a good thing for fantasy owners. Cutler can easily end the year as a top 5 quarterback and has been consistent week to week.
Eli Manning did enough to get the job done in Week 5 even though his efficiency was at the same level as Week 2. It was still above par and a signal that there were good things to come, so we’re likely seeing his floor going forward when he’s just above 60% completion rate and hovering around 7.0 Yards per Attempt. Manning has a very sneaky top 10 wide receiver corps going forward with the quick emergence of a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. joining Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and the Tax Man, Larry Donnell.
Russell Wilson is a God and needs to be in everyone’s top 3 dynasty rankings at a minimum. That is all.
Running Back in general has been a very sketchy position to pin-point this year. This is why we preach not to build your dynasty teams around this position. From 2010 – 2013, a running back needed 14 fantasy points per game in order to reach the top 12 by year end and be a RB1 for your team.
Through Week 5, we’re currently running at a cut-off of just under 15 points per game. The problem is that the top 12 to date aren’t the players that we would have expected to be out front. Only Matt Forte is trending to finish the season as a top back that was expected to be in that range. The rest of the first round redraft running backs are performing below expectation.
Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, and Rashad Jennings are all RB1 material this year, and only Rashad Jennings would have been worth a 2nd round rookie pick in trades. Pierre Thomas, Matt Asiata, and Bobby Rainey are more names that cost an owner next to nothing to acquire this year and have been more than serviceable as RB2’s.
While it would appear that early investments in Giovani Bernard and Le’Veon Bell were well worth the cost at the first to second round turn, the history of running backs in general suggest that their values will yet fluctuate when you least expect it. Both are now considered top 5 dynasty running backs. The value you will get in return for these guys in the offseason will be huge. You can replace them with draft picks or wide receivers (or both) and then turn around and invest in cheap options that people are giving away next offseason as everyone is drooling over the next draft class.
Please don’t confuse the above statement with me building dynasty teams around vets – I’m saying this particular position can be punted, thus, allowing you to build everywhere else for the long haul.
Brian Quick wasn’t so quick hopping on the dynasty value-meter. In fact, he was likely on the waiver wire this offseason in many dynasty leagues as his owners had to come to grips with the fact that he just wouldn’t pan out. While the trends have changed as of late from third-year to second-year break-outs for the wide receiver position in general, this third-year break out has been a model of consistency earning 2.37 FPs/ Target, and he’s earning 7.5 Targets per Game. If an owner approaches you about Quick, he better be willing to pony up a first round rookie pick.
I can tell you one thing – I hate the taste of crow – and I’m eating it over my offseason hate for Kelvin Benjamin. He was an old an inexperienced rookie, his measurables were confusing at best, and his consistency just didn’t fit the bill. While I’ll be heading back to the well to figure out how this one slipped through the cracks, those that bought-in are enjoying this young receiver that should remain and impact player for years to come with Cam Newton. His catch rate is still very suspect, but you would think this will improve as he continues to earn more high-impact reps.
Randall Cobb has been a Red Zone Warrior for Aaron Rodgers. This is a tricky situation that has caught a ton of offseason buzz as to whether or not he should be sold due to the upcoming contract dilemma. Here’s the way I see it:
- It’s possible (although not likely) Ted Thompson drafted a new wide receiver crop but still intends to find room for Cobb within the cap space and sustains the same value.
- It’s possible Cobb signs elsewhere and becomes the top option on a new team and sustains the same value – EG. Eric Decker.
- It’s possible Cobb stays in Green Bay and loses value as Davante Adams and Jeff Janis demand larger roles.
- It’s possible Cobb signs with a new team and loses value due to either landing spot or usage.
There is only one definitive you can count on – you can land two first round pick values for Cobb today, whether a couple draft picks or players or a combination of both best suit your needs, it’s always a must to consider selling a player when his performance is at peak value. If you’re contending, I’m sure you’re willing to play out the above bullets and cross your fingers for the best possible outcome.
Martellus Bennett will be 28 years old next year, and he isn’t a Free Agent until 2017. Tight Ends age pretty gracefully compared to other positons in fantasy, and he’s Cutler’s BFF this year – not Brandon Marshall. Had you purchased the draft guide this offseason, you would have known to target Bennett.
Your takeaway? Buy that draft guide for only $5 next year and stay ahead of the curve.
I just attempted to pay a first round pick for Travis Kelce last week and was denied. I could have drafted Kelce with rookie pick 2.2 this offseason, but his injury concerns were still at the fore-front, and Allen Robinson and Austin-Seferian Jenkins were still on the board. That’s how deep this draft class was.
Rob Gronkowski looks like he’s ready to go after earning a career high in snaps. I own him on a dumpster-fire team and have been waiting for him to come back healthy so I can entertain offers. I feel like he still needs to string together a couple more solid games before I consider this action in order to field max value offers.
Consider this list a straw-man for your next dynasty move. It’s along season and a lot can still happen, but it’s imperative to know where you’re going before you get there. Leave a reply and let us know your thoughts about the above players or anyone else you have questions about.