Wrong. Dead wrong.
We’ve all been there. We all know that feeling in the pit of our stomachs after we realize just how wrong we were. And you are all going to feel that way about two quarterbacks this season. There are at least two quarterbacks you were wrong about in your 2QB and Superflex drafts this year.
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Consider this planting my flag, making my bold prediction, or however you want to term it. This article is how I pin myself to two bold predictions and see whether the season proves me right.
So let’s get on to it, who are the two quarterbacks you were wrong about in 2014?
Russell Wilson (ADP: QB13. My season-long projection: QB7).
Russell Wilson was part of a four-way tie for the eighth-best fantasy quarterback last year, despite the Seahawks finishing 26th in the league in passing yards. In his rookie season, Wilson was the 11th-best fantasy quarterback.
My point? We have seen Russell Wilson’s floor, and it is glorious. Russell Wilson has never finished worse than 11th, yet he was drafted as the 13th quarterback this offseason.
I can already hear your chorus of resistance: Golden Tate left Seattle for Detroit this offseason, but are we really putting so much stock in Tate that we believe Russell Wilson will have his worst season as a pro? Tate was an important part of the offense last year, leading the team in receiving yards, targets, and receptions; but Doug Baldwin was not far behind. Doug Baldwin is a 25-year old wide receiver who nearly matched Golden Tate’s production last season. Now Baldwin gets a chance to shine.
After two years leading an NFL offense, Russell Wilson stands ready for more responsibility on the field. I expect we’ll see a slight uptick in his passing numbers this year, and there is potential for more long-play touchdowns with Percy Harvin healthy — for now.
If we’ve already seen a floor at QB11, I feel confident predicting that we were all wrong to let Russell Wilson fall to QB13 in our drafts this year. If you don’t believe me, why don’t you read the esteemed C. D. Carter predict that Russell Wilson will finish 2014 as a top-3 quarterback.
Geno Smith (ADP: QB31. My season-long projection: QB23).Geno Smith finished 2013 as the 20th-best fantasy quarterback, and he did that on a rollercoaster of a season with Jeremy Kerley as his top wide receiver. To make that performance more impressive, consider this: Kerley only had 523 receiving yards all season!
To put that in perspective, Calvin Johnson had more receiving yards in a three-week stretch last year. You’ve heard the saying that someone brought a knife to a gunfight. Well, last year, Geno Smith was forced to take a rusty spoon to that gunfight.
This offseason, Geno gets at least a small upgrade to that rusty spoon. The Jets went out and signed Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, and they drafted tight end Jace Amaro. While none of those three should be considered an elite option, each brings more playmaking ability to the team than anyone provided last season. In particular, Eric Decker could put up solid WR2 numbers in 2014 according to James Todd over at RotoViz.
Along with better weapons on offense, Geno Smith also has the benefit of a full year of NFL experience and a full offseason of preparing as the team’s starter. Last season, Geno finished the year with two 20-point games in the final four weeks. In those final weeks, he averaged more than 40 rushing yards and racked up three rushing touchdowns. We can safely expect to see some improvement to Geno Smith’s numbers this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his rushing totals look more like the final weeks than the start of the season when he wasn’t as free to scramble.
To put it bluntly, there was no reason to let Geno Smith fall below 30 other quarterbacks in drafts this offseason. I don’t believe he’ll be reliable enough to start every week, but owners who are willing to stream their QB2 position based on matchups will love what they get from Geno this year. There is no way the 20th-best quarterback last year falls to a depth that merits an ADP of QB31.
Quarterbacks I’m Wrong About
You will have a chance every week to return the favor and tell me what quarterbacks I am wrong about. Starting this week you can find my weekly QB rankings up on the site, and you can check out our weekly TwoQB podcast to hear more of my thoughts on the week’s matchups.
So let me know, either in the comment section or on Twitter. What quarterbacks am I wrong about? Because, after all, turnabout is fair play.
Final note: Because I write exclusively about 2QB and Superflex leagues, I have relied upon the 2QB ADP data put together by Salvatore Stefanile over at XNSports.