Risk Reward Thursday Week 2

By John Bush

 Risk Reward Thursday Week 2

I wished to give my take on the Thursday BAL vs CIN

Risk Reward Thursday Week 2 Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

Previous Week 2 Articles 

targets-per-minute-week-1-2018

snaps-per-minute-week-1-2018

nonppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-2

ppr-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-2

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

Risk Reward Thursday Week 2 Slide23

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Week 1 Risk Levels By Team 

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 Thursday BAL vs CIN

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 44 points) 

  • BAL 22  vs  CIN 22 from Vegas. CIN the favorite. 

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • CIN has to face an overall Above Average Defense from BAL Defense

  • BAL contends with an overall Easy Defense from the CIN Defense

  • BAL has an extremely high number of players in the High to Mid Risk levels (74%) vs CIN in the 54% level. This is one of the aspects that tilts to CIN tonight. In DFS, overall cash plays out of CIN vs tournament plays from BAL. 

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Week 2 Odds vegas Figures

BAL 

Flaco contends into an easy Defense ranked at 32 and on paper has a good game 3x scores. He fights a 23.6 QB DAP. That only enhances a BAL upset. Flaco still a low risk 16 ranked. Concerns exist. 

His WRs however, will have to scrap vs a 78 WR DAP from CIN. That lowers the WR scores tonight. Crabtree and Brown figure to share 2X scores but each is a mid risk 80 to 69 ranked respectively. Template your expectations. DFS advice as above. 

The BAL TE vs an easy 27 TE DAP and expect 1 to 2 X scores. The issue is they used 3 TEs last week and it is unclear the dominant one. I think Boyle is that one and give him a 71 mid risk for a score. Andrews is low risk 53 and Williams is a mid risk 49. DFS gambles all. 

The RB for BAL which include Collins and Allen are both high-risk plays.  I do think they are the game fulcrum for BAL because of the easy RB DAP from CIN of 14. I expect one score from Collins and PPR points from Allen. Collins is ranked at 84 vs Allen at 60. Gambles at DFS this week.

Kicker and Defense can do good especially the K Tucker! 

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Risk Reward Thursday Week 2 Risk Reward Thursday Week 2 Week 2 Odds vegas Figures

CIN

CIN with Dalton faces a tough BAL Defense at 53. Not so strong CIN cannot win but a tougher defense that swarms to the Ball. Dalton gets 2X at best vs an extreme 102 QB DAP. I would fade him in DFS, I have him at mid risk 17 ranked. As I write you could move that to high risk! 

AJ Green gets a stout 86 WR DAP but will get his points and score 1X. I rate him low risk 96! The others are a mystery. Ross has got some last week hype but for me is high risk 57. Maybe a score but a roll of the dice on him. 

If Eifert does not collect PPR points and a score we have an issue as he will enjoy an easy time from the BAL defense of a 12 TE DAP.  He is strong TE play of low risk 84 this week. the debate is cash vs tournament for me! 

Finally, as with BAL, the CIN victory chances hinge on the RBs as Mixon and Bernard get a very easy 12 RB DAP. Mixon can electrify this week with 2X scores. Bernard collects your PPR points. Mixon low risk 91 cash game guy vs Bernard 36 low-risk tournament play only. 

The kicker for CIN is good to go but CIN defense may have to work for points. 

Risk Reward Thursday Week 2 Slide33

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