Player Fantasy Points Per Game

 

FYI  Bush and Cherney’s Fantasy Football Text has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

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 Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

 

By John Bush

Player Fantasy Points Per Game

Having an actual prediction of a 2018 Player Fantasy Points Per Game a Fantasy Player now has a foundational benchmark metric vs a simple number list. FP/G estimation allows a new way to judge player’s worth.

I developed an algorithmic method using the Public’s ADP (PPR Scoring Based) to calculate their expectations of player’s FP/G. This number can be used to estimate team, positional as well as player FP/G. 


Team Strength via Average FP/G

Below is the player’s FP/G averaged by their team as well as that average scaled to league average. The tabular list (color coded) is on the left while a visual landscape view is graphed using a waterfall graphical technique of those scaled FP/G team averages. 

The top teams are KC, NYG, LAR, MIN, HOU, and PIT. Some of these teams might be a surprise. This metric looks across all positions. Those top teams have more consistently higher FP/G players or several very high FP/G players. 

The lowest teams are JAC, DAL, MIA, NYJ, WAS and BUF. Many of these teams are not too surprising. These Bottom teams will tend to have fewer desirable players vs the Top teams. 

Note the asymmetric distribution of the data (Skewed to the positive). The 2 extreme team KC and NYG may be overestimated by the public!

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Team Positional FP/G Averages with Pie Diagrams of Positional % Within Teams

I used the estimated FP/G to drill down from the team level to positional levels in each team. What teams will have an RB vs TE vs WR focus. These data should be used to target players on teams that have higher project usages vs low usages. In general, the higher position specific teams should have multiple players that are viable while a low focused team might just one main number 1 player only as being viable. 

Use this data to mark or highlight advantageous situations on your draft sheets. These data will certainly be good tiebreaker metrics.

The key positional averages are:

  • QB    36%    Usage
  • RB    21.5% Usage
  • TE    19.4% Usage
  • WR   23.7% Usage

ARI ATL BAL and BUF

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide17

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide18

Comments

  • ARI  RB Focused
  • ATL WR Focused Weak TE
  • BAL Near Averages
  • BUF RB Focused Weaker WRs

CAR, CHI, CIN, and CLE

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Comments:

  • CAR Strong TE Weak WR
  • CHI Strong RB and TE. Weak WR
  • CIN Near Averages
  • CLE Strong WRs

DAL DEN DET and GB

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide21

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide22


HOU, IND, JAC, and KCC 

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide23

Player Fantasy Points Per Game slide243.jpg

Comments:

  • HOU Strong QB and WR.   Weak RB and TE
  • IND Near Averages
  • JAC Strong RB. Weaker WRs
  • KCC Weak QB Strong TE

LAC, LAR, MIA, and MIN

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide25

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide26

Comments:

  • LAC TE Weak. WR Strong.
  • LAR Strong RB. Weak TEs
  • MIA Near Averages
  • MIN Near Averages

NEP, NOS, NYG, and NYJ

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide27

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide28

Comments:

  • NEP WR and RBs Weak. TEs very strong.
  • NOS QB Strong. Weak TEs
  • NYG Weak QB but Strong WRs and TEs (Public missing something)
  • NYJ Strong QB. Weak TEs

OAK, PHI, PIT, and SEA

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide29

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide30

Comments:

  • OAK Strong WRs. Weak TEs.
  • PHI Strong TEs
  • PIT Weak QBs but Strong WRs (Problem here). Weak TE. 
  • SEA Very Strong QB. Weak TEs.

SFO, TBB, TEN, and WAS

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide31

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide32

Comments:

  • SFO Strong QB. 
  • TBB Near Average
  • TEN Near Averages
  • WAS Near Averages

Team Positional Usages by FP/G Proxy Metrics %

The Team metrics for each position are lined up and presented in tabular format. Top to Bottom Teams are color coded. Your drafting will benefit focusing on the top teams vs bottom teams in the specific positions.  Following the tables are a graphical landscape of the league for high to the low teams (left to right) 


Quarterbacks 

Note the obvious surprises in the QBs. 

  • Stafford Det Fourth Best
  • McCown NYJ Fifth Best
  • Eli Manning NYG Last but strong QBs? 
  • Big Ben PIT Same as NYG weak QBs but strong WRs?

Find the other issues in QBs!

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide34

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide35


Running Backs

Note the obvious surprises in the RBs. 

  • BUF RBs McCoy 4th Best
  • DEN RBs. 10th Best
  • PHI RBs 5th worst
  • IND RBs. 6th worst

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide36

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide37


Tight Ends

Note the obvious surprises in the TEs.

  •  GBP 7th Best
  • MIA 8th Best

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide38

Player Fantasy Points Per Game Slide39


Wide Receivers

Note the obvious surprises in the WRs.

  • CLE 9th Best
  • NEP Last 
  • GBP 3rd Last

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Player FP/G 2018 Estimated from Public ADP. 

These numbers put a solid FP number to each player. Use to establish Tiers. Use for your draft notes. The following waterfall graphs present the differences between players. What players are seemly in their own tier? I present my top 10 Tiers or so for each Position. 


Quarterbacks 

  • Tier 1 Rodgers
  • Tier 2 Watson and  Wilson 
  • Tier 3 Wentz, Brady, Newton, and Luck
  • Tier 4 Brees 
  • Tier 5 Cousins Garoppolo, and Stafford 
  • Tier 6 Goff and Ryan
  • Tier 7  Rivers, Mahomes, Rothlisberger, Mariota, and Prescott

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Tight Ends

  • Tier 1 Gronk
  • Tier 2 Kelce
  • Tier 3 Ertz
  • Tier 4 Engram
  • Tier 5 Graham
  • Tier 6 Walker and Rudolph
  • Tier 7 Burton, and Reed
  • Tier 8 Doyle and Kittle
  • Tier 9 Njoku and Howard
  • Tier 10 Eifert, Gesicki, Hurst, and Clay

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Running Backs

  • Tier 1 Gurley
  • Tier 2 Bell
  • Tier 3 Elliot
  • Tier 4 Johnson
  • Tier 5 Barkley
  • Tier 6 Kamara and Hunt 
  • Tier 7 Fournette and Gordon
  • Tier 8 Cook, McCaffrey, Mixon, and Freeman
  • Tier 9 McKinnon and Howard 
  • Tier 10 McCoy, Collins and Penny,
  • Tier 11 Henry and Drake

Slide1

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Wide Receivers

  • Tier 1 Brown
  • Tier 2 Hopkins
  • Tier 3 Beckham
  • Tier 4 Thomas
  • Tier 5 Jones
  • Tier 6 Allen, Evans, Greens, Hill, Diggs, Hilton and Cooper
  • Tier 7 Thielen, Landry, Robinson, and Baldwin
  • Tier 8 Cooks, JuJu, Fitz, and Tate
  • Tier 9  D. Thomas, Davis, Jeffery, Gordon, Watkins, Jones, and Hogan
  • Tier 10 Crabtree, Fuller, Crowder, Edleman, Nelson, Parker, and Woods

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My Previous Articles

More Information Increasing Accuracy?  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=35319

Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis 5/9/18   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36403

Non-PPR Player Rankings Part 1  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36513

Non-PPR Rankings Part 2  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36541

PPR Rankings Part 1   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36549

PPR Rankings Part 2   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36554

Fantasy Football Planning  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36562

Why Late QB Drafting?  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36601

Best at Best Ball Part 1   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36666

Best at Best Ball Part 2   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36677

Best at Best Ball Part 3   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36708

Best at Best Ball Part 4   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36726

Best at Best Ball Part 5   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36734

FF Players Biased Decisions Part 1 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36738

FF Players Biased Decisions Part 2  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36743

ADP vs Player Performance Part 1 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36752

ADP vs Player Performance Part 2 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36771

ADP vs Player Performance Part 3 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36788

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 1 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36847

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 2 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36869

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 3  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36875

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 4  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36935

Professor’s PPR Rankings  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=37014

Professor’s Non-PPR Rankings   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=37034

 

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